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You’re not taking too big a risk if you predict that a quarterback will hoist the Heisman Trophy in December.
Only four non-quarterbacks have won the award since the turn of the century, and the trend is likely to continue this season. According to BetMGM odds, The 22 favorites for the award are all quarterbacks..
Here’s a look at where the Heisman race stands heading into the start of the 2024 season, as many of the favorites are quarterbacks from teams likely to be in the conversation for the expanded College Football Playoff at the end of the season.
The favorites
There aren’t many surprises in this group. Each player is the quarterback of a serious national title contender heading into the 2024 season. Gabriel has emerged as a favorite this summer after Bo Nix set an NCAA record for completion percentage with the Ducks in 2023. Asking Gabriel to break Nix’s new record is a lot, but he should be a great fit for an Oregon offense that brings back a ton of talent ahead of its first season in the Big Ten.
Beck was fantastic in his first year as the Bulldogs’ starter and figures to be even better with the experience he has under his belt. Ewers passed on the chance to go to the NFL for another season in Austin after a College Football Playoff appearance and a standout campaign. Milroe improved greatly as the 2023 season progressed and is a fascinating player to watch in new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense.
Like Gabriel, Dart has risen in the rankings recently as Ole Miss is a popular choice to compete for the SEC title and make the playoffs. Howard comes to Ohio State from Kansas State and the Buckeyes hope he will be the missing piece for a national title run.
The next level
Iamaleava enters the season as the No. 8 seed despite only having started once in his career. He looked great in the Citrus Bowl and Tennessee’s offense should be fantastic with the former five-star recruit replacing Joe Milton. If the Vols make the playoffs, Iamaleava will be a big reason why.
Nussmeier is the man tasked with replacing reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels at LSU and will be debuting a new group of receivers. He will also have a new offensive coordinator. Mike Denbrock, who ran LSU’s offense last season, is now at Notre Dame and calling the plays for Leonard. The former Duke quarterback struggled in 2023 due to injuries. If he can stay healthy, Notre Dame is on track to have a breakout season.
Johnson’s emergence in the second half of the 2023 season helped propel Howard into the transfer portal. He might be the quickest starting quarterback in college football. Weigman looked good in his brief stint as the Aggies’ starter in 2023 before suffering a season-ending foot injury. Any hopes for a 10-win season in College Station likely hinge on his health.
Ward, meanwhile, is tasked with leading the Hurricanes’ playoff push. Miami pounced on the transfer portal during the offseason and landed Ward from Washington State after flirting with the NFL Draft. His odds have steadily declined as the season approaches and he’s no longer an unexpected favorite for the award.
The sleeping QBs
If you’re looking for a quarterback in this group to emerge as a Heisman contender, the best bets appear to be Arnold, Cook and Allar. The Missouri and Penn State quarterbacks play for teams that harbor serious playoff hopes and schedules that make 10-win seasons seem like real possibilities. Arnold had a rough debut as a starter in the Alamo Bowl, but should be much improved after a full offseason as the Sooners’ starter.
Daniels was voted Big 12 Player of the Year in the 2023 preseason but was limited by a back injury. We’re looking forward to seeing what he can do if he’s healthy.
Meanwhile, Sanders is in this tier simply because of oddsmakers’ fascination with Colorado. There are a lot of things that need to go right for Colorado if it wants to be a Heisman contender. And we all saw how quickly things went wrong for the Buffaloes in 2023.
The long throw QBs
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita (+4000)
Utah quarterback Cam is on the rise (+4000)
USC quarterback Miller Moss (+4000)
Florida State Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei (+4000)
Cade Klubnik, Clemson quarterback (+5000)
USC quarterback Jayden Maiava (+8000)
Yes, there are two USC quarterbacks in this group. The competition in Los Angeles was the biggest of the offseason, as Maiava, a transfer from UNLV (and brief Georgia commitment), came in to push Moss for the starting job. Moss ultimately won the battle and will fill the role vacated by Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
Rising is back for a seventh season of college football after missing the 2023 season with a knee injury he suffered in the Rose Bowl last season. The Utes are the preseason favorites in the Big 12. Fifita lost his head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, but Arizona should still be very good under former San Jose State coach Brent Brennan.
Uiagalelei will replace Jordan Travis at Florida State and has had a rough start following the Seminoles’ loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday in their season opener. We’ll see how Mike Norvell adapts his offense to fit Uiagalelei’s skills.
Klubnik had an uneven season last year in his first season in Garrett Riley’s offense. Another offseason of familiarity could pay big dividends.
The best non-QBs
Yes, you have to go all the way to 50-1 to find the first non-quarterback. And it’s tough to make a case for a Heisman title for many of these players. Hunter is phenomenal and a rare athlete. But his chances depend on a major improvement by the Buffs. And have you seen their 2024 schedule?
Judkins was hampered by injury in 2023 and regressed from a stellar freshman season at Ole Miss. He and Henderson are the best running back duo in college football. Will either player rack up enough carries to be considered for the Heisman?
It doesn’t appear Gordon will receive a suspension of any kind for his offseason DUI arrest, and as a result, he might have the best chance of winning the Heisman of any player in this group. He rushed for more than 1,700 yards last season and will once again be the Cowboys’ offensive engine in 2024.
Burden enters the season as perhaps the best wide receiver in college football, but he’ll likely have to put together a DeVonta Smith-like season to win the award. Edwards was instrumental for the Wolverines in the national title game after a lackluster season. If that’s a sign of things to come in 2024 with Blake Corum leaving for the NFL, he’s worth betting on.
Prediction
The rationale here is pretty simple. Beck is set to be the best player on the best team in the toughest conference in the country. Georgia is the preseason hot pick in the SEC despite a schedule that includes Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. Beck is a big reason why. He had a fantastic performance in his first season as a starter in 2023 and should only get better in 2024. He’s primed for a breakout season that could set him up to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.