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Analyzing the Red Sox’s critical needs as the trade deadline approaches Originally appeared in NBC Sports Boston
The Major League Baseball trade deadline is approaching at 6 p.m. Eastern Time, and the Red Sox’s needs are becoming critical.
They have Acquired a starter (James Paxton) and backup catcher (Danny Jansen)But their rotation remains in decline and their bullpen has been imploding for weeks. After Sunday night’s loss to the Yankees, they are 2-7 since the All-Star break, one game behind the Royals for the final wild-card spot.
Let’s look at what they’ve done and what work remains to be done.
1. Two movements so far
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has already taken steps to fill two needs. After the pitching-heavy Dodgers designated Paxton for assignment last week, the Red Sox took the plunge and acquired him in exchange for minor league infielder Moises Bolivar.
Paxton is 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA, numbers that are pretty similar to what he posted in Boston last year. But underneath it all, his velocity and strikeouts are down, and his walks are up. He appealed to the Red Sox anyway. Because he’s been reliable, with 18 starts under his belt, simply taking a regular turn will ease the strain at the top of the rotation.
The other move was a mild surprise. After a strong start, backup catcher Reese McGuire had cooled off. Needing a right-handed hitter to balance their overly left-handed roster, the Red Sox signed Jansen, an impending free agent with some power, from the Jays. He represents an upgrade, but perhaps only a marginal one.
2. What’s next?
In a word, pitching. All-Star Tanner Houck is in a slump after Sunday’s loss, having issued more walks than strikeouts in three of his last four starts. He’s already set a career high for innings pitched and will need to be managed going forward. There’s little depth beyond the current five-man rotation.
That means finding another starter, but it will likely be someone more like Paxton than, say, a frontline pitcher like San Francisco’s Blake Snell or Detroit ace Tarik Skubal. Rangers right-hander Michael Lorenzen, whose 3.81 ERA masks some abysmal peripherals, could have been a target, but he was traded to the Royals on Monday.
While the rotation needs an additional arm, the bullpen remains a much more immediate concern. Red Sox relievers have a 6.39 ERA this month and have blown leads in the seventh inning or later five times since the All-Star break.
The club is awaiting the return of injured Chris Martin and Justin Slaten, but neither has begun rehab and there is no timetable yet for their availability. If the past week is any indication, waiting until mid-August for reinforcements might be too late.
A final, though less pressing, need is a right-handed hitter, preferably one who can play first base. While the Red Sox remain susceptible to left-handed starters, as New York’s Carlos Rodon illustrated again on Sunday, offense is not as pressing an issue as pitching.
3. What is the cost?
This is where things get complicated. The bullpen market has not been for the faint of heart.
The Padres sent three prospects to the Rays for right-hander Jason Adam, including their No. 1 prospect in the order, Dylan Lesko. The Phillies sent two highly regarded pitchers to the Angels for right-hander Carlos Estevez. The Diamondbacks used their No. 14 and No. 30 prospects to acquire AJ Puk from the Marlins.
It’s unclear how far Breslow would be willing to go to land a rental reliever, but it’s hard to blame him if he doesn’t want to pay the current exorbitant prices.
4. What are others doing?
Remember Alex Cora’s observation that teams that do nothing at the deadline fall behind because everyone else is getting better? That already appears to be happening in the American League playoff race.
The Orioles already have They added starter Zach Eflin to their rotation and apparently remain committed to the Tigers in Skubal. The Yankees grabbed All-Star center fielder Jazz ChisIElm From the Marlins. The Mariners Rays postseason hero Randy ArozarenaThe Royals got Lorenzen.
The Blue Jays and Rays could still make an impact in the title race with their sales. Tampa Bay has been the league’s most aggressive seller and could still sell All-Stars Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, while the Jays could offer left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, first baseman Justin Turner and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.
With the Rangers and Astros also expected to shop, the Red Sox can’t simply wait for injured players to return if they want to keep up the momentum.
