You could be forgiven for having a feeling of deja vu watching the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday. For the second week in a row, Joe Burrow torched a defense. He made one surprising pitch after another. In the final analysis, he threw for 356 yards, three touchdowns and did not turn the ball over. And yet, the result was the same: the Bengals lost by one point.
What Burrow is doing this season is unprecedented. Never had a quarterback played at such a high level, with such a heavy workload, while being let down by almost everyone around him. Only Tony Romo in 2010 and Aaron Rodgers in 2018 have done so. snuggle upbut even that duo had the benefit of solid protection from their linemen. Burrow doesn’t. Burrow is outperforming every quarterback in the league despite those around him flailing.
The loss to the Chargers marked the third This season Cincy has lost in a game in which Burrow passed for over 300 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. According to NFL research, Burrow is the only quarterback since the league’s merger in 1970 to record those numbers in three losses in a single year. With the latter effort, he became the first quarterback in league history to achieve that type of production in back to back games. To put that in context, Tom Brady only had two such games in his 23-year career, according to CBS Sports. Wow.
The Bengals are 1-6 in one-score games this season, a notoriously unstable measure what a good team in fact es, and 4-7 overall. A bounce of the ball, a sloppy play, a referee call (or non-call), or a defensive stop can tip a one-score game in either direction. After the fact, we like to attribute virtues to teams that achieve victories by one score. They are tougher… or smarter. They wanted him more. Their “culture” made them cross the line. Sometimes those things are true: Great teams limit penalties and execute the little details that can make the difference in a game decided by one or two plays. But sometimes we chase those clichés as comfort food to mask the obvious: it’s luck. One-score games are little more what a launch.
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In the case of the Bengals, both things are true. They have dealt with bad luck and Failed plays at crucial moments, or too often dug themselves into a hole that not even Burrow has been able to dig them out of. There have been missed field goals, decisive holding penalties, shredded coverages and officiating hits on must-have plays that, if any of them had gone the other way, would have been the difference between winning and losing. They have lost games by one score against AFC heavyweights: the Chiefs, the Chargers and twice against the Ravens. In the four games, Burrow was close to flawless, throwing for 1,428 yards and 15 touchdowns with one interception.
Losing six close games with a quarterback playing this well is almost impressive. Burrow’s numbers this season are crazy. He has thrown for 3,028 yards, 27 touchdowns and only has four interceptions so far. It’s on its way to being the best in a hurry season of his career, fighting to make something happen. Leads the league in QBR and ranks third in the RBSDM composite, which measures the value of a play and the extent to which the quarterback can be held responsible for the value. In a normal year, Burrow would top the voting for the league’s most prestigious team. Instead, they were left fighting for the final playoff spot in a dismal AFC wild card race (NFL.com gives the Bengals a 12% chance to reach the postseason). Chances are, the Bengals will be on the outside looking in when the postseason rolls around.
When asked after the loss in Los Angeles if it was the most frustrating season of his career, Burrow responded: “Yes.” Because? “It’s self-explanatory,” Burrow said. “Our margin for error is small… I have to make those plays. “We all have to make those plays.”
It was just three seasons ago that Burrow led the Bengals on an improbable run to the Super Bowl. Back then, everything coalesced around the quarterback. Cincinnati had a solid running game, one of the most dynamic receiving corps in the league, a playful defense and a clutch kicker. Except for his receivers, everything else has collapsed around the quarterback this season.
The team’s defense, once a calling card, has slumped, scoring 26.9 points per game, the fifth-worst total in the league. Only the Panthers, a franchise that boasts a CFL roster on defense, have been worse against the run this year. The team’s pass rush is also gone, and only Trey Hendrickson is a reliable threat. They have fallen to 28th in the league in sack rate through 11 weeks.. And this is a unit the Bengals have prioritized, spending more on their defensive line than all but three teams this season and recruiting more defensive linemen than any other franchise since 2021. As investments go, there has been no a worse return since the NFT Bubble.
On offense, they are just as scruffy. Any attempt to diversify the offense has failed. The group is still flowing as Burrow and his receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, flow. They have no running game, falling to 30th in the league in accelerated success rate (and that’s despite the defenses fearing Burrow and Chase will take their heads off!). Now is a good time to mention that they traded Joe Mixon. returns to his best level in Houstonlast low season for a seventh round pick?
To make matters worse, his kicking game has stagnated. Evan McPherson, once seen as the heir apparent to Justin Tucker as the league’s leading kicker, now it seems, well, 2024 Justin Tucker. McPherson has made just 50% of his kicks of 40-plus yards this season and has missed his last four kicks of 50-plus yards, including kicks against the Ravens and Chargers in one-score losses.
Beyond that, the Bengals continue to have protection issues. Burrow has been hit more than any quarterback since entering the NFL. Part of that is because he held the ball and waited to try deep shots. But most of it is due to a sloppy offensive line. Despite throwing cash and draft picks at the problem, the Bengals still can’t put together a functional line. Since Week 5, the Bengals have given up pressure on 40% of Burrow’s dropbacks, one of the worst rates in the league. And Burrow keeps getting drilled. He has been hit 37 times this year, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s 12 more than the nearest quarterback. Nor have they been soft, pleasurable successes; there have been devastating shots, including a couple after the whistle. How much longer can you bear this physical toll? He has already missed parts of two seasons due to serious injuries. tearing his ACL in 2020 and tearing a ligament in his wrist last season.
When an offense focuses on a few pieces (in the Bengals’ case, Burrow, Higgins and Chase), it becomes plodding and predictable. However, Burrow, despite being under siege, stood his ground and delivered, turning in the best season of his career. Not only has he kept the Bengals offense afloat, he has elevated it to the top 10 in all of the silliest metrics. In points per game, they are sixth in the NFL. Can you imagine what it would look like with just a bad offensive line or running game instead of one of the worst in the league?
If the MVP award is truly about “grit,” it’s hard to think of anyone who has contributed more to his unit than Burrow. Put a league-average quarterback (Russell Wilson or Baker Mayfield) in Burrow’s place, and Cincinnati’s offense would fall apart. Forget a potential playoff run, without Burrow playing at his current level, the Bengals wouldn’t even be competitive.
Any hope that the Bengals can get back into the playoff picture rests on the idea that the team’s defense can finally come into its own. But it would also require the running game to start moving forward and Burrow’s protection to improve.
At this point, they need a small miracle. But somehow, the team already had that miracle: Burrow playing at an MVP level despite the chaos surrounding him. Asking a quarterback to maintain that standard for an entire season is fantastic. At some point, surely, the odds will tilt against Burrow. A ball will tilt. He will misinterpret a defense, such as He did it late against the Chargers. When the margin for error is so small and the quarterback is under constant pressure, he will eventually make a mistake. And if the Bengals lose a game because Burrow comes back to Earth or takes one hit too many, then their playoff hopes are over.
Many teams have spoiled the careers of exceptional quarterbacks. But the Bengals are making the case for earning a carving on Mount Rushmore. From the first beatings of his career to not being able to ink Burrow’s work. Key weapons for long-term agreements.to ruin a defensive rebuildhave met all check marks. So far they’ve wasted Burrow’s best moment. Now, one of the greatest quarterback seasons ever recorded will likely take a back seat. As far as team building goes, it’s inexcusable.