A county in Washington state has predicted the winner of the last 11 elections and is battling it out with this one between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
“Reference counties” are known as areas that choose the winner from one election to the next, regardless of party.
While they have become less of a central issue as political polarization has grown in the United States, Clallam County has gotten it right in every election since 1980.
Now, less than two months away from a close election between Harris and Trump, residents are still unsure which way the county will lean, with Democrats reinvigorated by Harris but Republicans still furious about crime and inflation.
Perhaps the only thing Trump and Harris voters in the county agreed on? The debate changed nothing.
One county in Washington state, Clallam, has predicted the winner of the last 11 elections and is fighting with this one between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
“Benchmark counties” are known as areas that pick the winner from one election to the next, regardless of party. While they have lost prominence as political polarization has grown in the U.S., Clallam County has gotten it right in every election since 1980.
Independent voter and Trump supporter William Lewis, 73, says he “didn’t learn anything I didn’t already know” from the debate and that the former president is the clear and obvious choice: “Anybody who doesn’t see that, I don’t know what they’re watching.”
He told the Los Angeles Times The contest in Philadelphia “was exactly the same, with both in the same room instead of in different locations.”
Fellow independent voter Jeanne Viramonte, 74, feels the same way, but only because she’s sick of looking at Trump.
“His views on women are horrible, so no, I’m not going to watch it. I’m not going to vote for him.”
While the state has supported the president in the last 11 elections, it has traditionally taken a slight Democratic lean.
In 2018 and 2022, the state helped elect its two Democratic senators, Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray.
However, Cantwell only beat Clallam by 3.4 points and Murray by an even smaller margin, 1.4 points.
Additionally, while Joe Biden won the county in 2020 by 3.4 points, incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee actually lost Clallam to a Republican by 0.6 points.
Harris hopes to pick up where Joe Biden left off after winning the county in 2020.
However, Trump and Republicans also have high hopes for 2024, as the incumbent Democratic governor lost Clallam County.
Washington state holds a “jungle” primary in which the top two candidates advance to the general election, regardless of party.
Cantwell won the primary overall, but only got 55 percent of the vote in the August primary. He will face Republican Raul Garcia in November.
Perhaps more appealing to Republicans is that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bob Ferguson could only muster 44.9 percent of the vote in that primary.
However, he outperformed his Republican general election opponent, Dave Reichert, by 17 points.
Now that the once-strong timber industry has largely disappeared, the county’s 80,000 residents rely heavily on tourism.
“There’s a lot of distrust of both political parties and the kind of nonsense they’re trying to sell us,” said business owner Sam Grello, 37.
“The bottom line is who will help our community the most. Are you willing to look at what the problems are and address them? Or are you an ideologue? Do ideas or people come first?”
Grello had planned not to support Joe Biden, but will enthusiastically vote for Harris.
Sen. Patty Murray of Washington won Clallam County in 2022 by just 1.4 points
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee lost the county by less than a point in 2020
“I won’t be ashamed to have her as president. I won’t have to think about her as much. I want to be able to focus on my job and not worry about the president doing his.”
But Biden’s incumbency is a big turnoff for more conservative-leaning voters like Pam Blakeman, 72, a county Republican leader who hates inflation and crime.
“I don’t go out to restaurants like I used to. It’s too expensive. I used to have to walk everywhere, anywhere. I don’t do that anymore. I’m on the alert,” he said.
Kim Butler, 66, adds: ‘“I think they’re spending money on programs that are bankrupting our country, like student loans. They have no authority… They’re just trying to buy votes.”
Harris is still expected to win in Washington, as Cook Political Report has the state listed as a “Solid D,” but counties like Clallam could be the canary in the coal mine for Democrats in November.
And with no party registration for county voters, America will wait and see which way it leans when the votes are counted.
