The Premier League’s hopes of securing a fifth Champions League spot are all but over after Liverpool and West Ham left Europe on Thursday.
It would take Aston Villa to win all their remaining Europa Conference League games and the German clubs to have an absolute disaster in their European Premier League semi-finals to secure a fifth place finish.
Europe’s top leagues have clashed this season in a bid to earn an extra place in next season’s competition, with two countries set to do so ahead of the introduction of the new Champions League format.
The continent’s premier competition will expand from next year for the first time since 2003-2004, going from 32 clubs in an eight-group style to 36 clubs in what is known as the “Swiss” format.
It will see teams play eight games in the qualifying round, four home and four away, with the top eight teams advancing to the round of 16 and ninth to 24th facing each other in home-and-away play-offs.
Premier League’s hopes of five Champions League places almost over
Liverpool and West Ham’s exits from the Europa League mean England have little chance of catching Germany
Two of the extra places will be awarded to the best performing leagues in Europe this season and, after the Premier League’s dismal week in Europe, the division faces a very difficult task to win one of them.
Currently, Italy and Germany lead the table with scores of 19.428 and 17.928 respectively, closely followed by England with 17.375.
Germany has two teams in the Champions League semifinals: Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, as well as Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League quarterfinals.
Meanwhile, Italy has four teams left: Roma, Fiorentina and Atalanta still in the Europa League, which leaves them in a good position in the standings.
England are down to one team after this week’s results, and their hopes are pinned on Aston Villa in the Conference League.
Liverpool beat Atalanta 1-0 in Bergamo, but that was not enough to recover from their abysmal 3-0 rout at Anfield last week.
Meanwhile, West Ham managed a commendable 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in London (and would have won if not for a late goal), but the damage had already been done with a 2-0 defeat in Germany a week earlier. .
It is mathematically certain that Italy will finish in the top two and Germany appears to be on the verge of achieving it.
Bayer Leverkusen’s progress over West Ham and Bayern Munich beating Arsenal have seriously damaged Premier League chances
Aston Villa need to win all remaining Europa Conference League games to give the Premier League a chance
Aston Villa are England’s only hope of getting a few more points in the coefficient table, but their chances of winning enough (and Germany winning few) are increasingly slim.
England can still achieve a maximum possible score of 18.25 (higher than Germany’s current score) if Aston Villa win all their remaining matches and lift the Europa Conference League.
However, earning a fifth place in the Champions League would depend on a terrible series of results for Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in their respective Champions League and Europa League semi-finals.
A victory for a club in Europe is worth two points in the standings and a draw, one. Bonus points can be accumulated by progressing through each competition, and more points can be obtained in the higher caliber tournament.
The total points are then divided by the number of teams in the nation’s Europe at the start of the season. In the Premier League, the total is divided by seven instead of eight due to West Ham qualifying by winning the Conference League.
While England’s success in Europe could be good news for teams seeking a place in the Champions League, it will also benefit those further down the table.
It would mean that qualification for the Europa League and Conference League would, in theory, be easier as qualification places would drop.
Germany and Italy could still have six teams in the Champions League if one of their teams wins a European competition and finishes outside the top four.
That would allow the sixth and seventh qualifiers for the Europa League (assuming a Champions League team wins the FA Cup) to earn a place in the Conference League.
Italy and Germany could still have six teams in the Champions League. If Roma or Atalanta finish outside the top four and win the Europa League, then Serie A will have six teams in next season’s Champions League, and the same applies if Borussia Dortmund win the big prize.