Anthony Albanese will announce changes to his cabinet line-up on Sunday, following the resignation of two cabinet ministers before retiring from politics altogether at the next election.
But let us not make the mistake of thinking that the Labour Prime Minister is the one who decides for himself who joins his cabinet.
No, no, no, that’s not how things work in the Labour Party.
In case you didn’t know, faction leaders sit down and determine who within their faction will be allowed to enter the Ministry of Labor.
In total, there are 30 ministerial posts available, most of them in the cabinet and some in the external ministry. The right-wing faction is allocated about half of the posts, while the left-wing faction gets the rest.
Each faction gives the Prime Minister a piece of paper with the exact information about who will be part of his ministry.
After that, he is given a certain amount of power: he chooses the portfolios of everyone except the deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, who as an MP has the right to choose his own portfolio.
Because the two outgoing ministers, Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor, are left-wing, that faction will elect two new ministers to replace them.
One of them is said to be the Assistant Minister for Indigenous Affairs, Senator Malarndirri McCarthy.
The other is a choice between three other junior ministers – Patrick Gorman and Senators Tim Ayres and Jenny McAllister – and one junior minister, Stephen Jones.
Let us not make the mistake of thinking that the Labour Prime Minister is the one who decides for himself who enters his cabinet. No, no, no, that is not how things work in the Labour Party.
Before we go any further, assistant ministers are NOT part of the ministry. Technically, they are on the front line, but they are outside of the 30 ministerial roles.
The rules state that the ruling parties can elect another 15 deputies and senators to take on the role of “deputy ministers.”
The Prime Minister can choose these positions himself, free from factions dictating what he should do.
Incidentally, assistant ministers used to be called “parliamentary secretaries” until the title was changed because some within their ranks expressed frustration at being mistaken for the minister’s secretary rather than a senior member of the staff.
I have always thought that the secretary is THE most important person working for you as they keep you organised, but some politicians objected to cases of mistaken identity so the title of parliamentary secretary no longer exists.
Back to Sunday’s reshuffle… Senator McCarthy, an Indigenous woman herself, is a natural fit for the Indigenous affairs portfolio that Burney is vacating.
Both sides of politics have now accepted the benefit of, where possible, appointing an indigenous politician to hold the indigenous portfolio.
Senator Malarndirri McCarthy is expected to take over Linda Burney’s indigenous affairs portfolio
Dr Andrew Charlton, who is languishing in a backbench, has a PhD in economics.
Albo’s good friend, Senator Tim Ayres, is expected to get a promotion
While there are four possibilities to fill the other vacant Cabinet seat, only two options are really being considered: Senators McAllister and Ayres, with Ayres being the favorite to secure the promotion, in large part because he and Albo are good friends.
McAllister still has a chance because she is left-wing (like the other options) and is a senator (like Ayres). The Labour team is apparently keen to increase the number of senators with ministerial portfolios.
There are currently only four, but if the two retirees are replaced by a pair of senators that number jumps to six, which apparently makes the Senate’s work easier.
It is a pity that both Gorman and Jones are the most qualified of the four for promotion: Jones because he at least has experience as a junior minister; Gorman because he was a senior adviser to a premier and state secretary of the Western Australian Labor Party when it won a historic election victory with Mark McGowan.
Stephen Jones, the assistant treasurer, is also a promotion possibility.
But talent rarely wins out in the Labour Party. So the two best replacements for the soon-to-be-vacant ministerial assistant posts will not be the two most qualified options: Andrew Charlton and Daniel Mulino.
Remind me, are we in a per capita recession? Yes, we are. Is the cost of living the central issue right now? Yes, it is. Does this government need to find ways to improve its economic management credentials and the talent of its officials? Surely it does – the only member of the cabinet’s powerful spending review committee with a degree in economics is Albo himself.
Charlton and Mulino, who are currently wasting away in back-bench jobs, have PhDs in economics from Oxford and Yale universities respectively. Their knowledge and experience in economics (both in government and in the private sector) are unmatched.
It is certainly more formidable than the skills of Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has a PhD in politics and studied the leadership of Paul Keating.
While there’s always the chance Albo could do the right thing and promote one or two of this pair, the odds are stacked against both of them because they’re in the wrong faction.
The two likely promotions from the rank of junior minister to the cabinet are from the left-wing faction. Charlton and Mulino are from the right-wing faction.
So once again the stupidity of Labour’s factional structure will likely prevent the right thing being done and talent being rewarded.
Meanwhile, Immigration Minister Andrew Giles must be a little nervous that his head is in the crosshairs, given the dismal job he has done in his portfolio.
He has released repeat criminals into the community, having changed the rules after taking power to make such an abomination possible.
In the spotlight: Immigration Minister Andrew Giles
Home Secretary Clare O’Neil’s future is up in the air
But he need not worry. Although he may be moved to another portfolio, he can also make mistakes without consequences. Giles is unlikely to be fired because his faction will protect him.
And even if they don’t, Albo probably will, given he used to be head of the Labour left and Giles is a close friend.
If Giles is moved to another role, my suggestion is Veterans Affairs, moving WA MP Matt Keogh to Immigration in a direct swap.
Keogh’s constituency in Washington is not as diverse as some Labor seats, so his adoption of a harder line on immigration will not have as much of a ripple effect in his seat or state as it might in others.
Giles can then set about finding a way to create problems in the veterans affairs portfolio.
Now we only have to think about the Home Secretary, Clare O’Neil. Will she also be moved to another portfolio, given the problems she has had? For my part, it is a firm decision.
Either way, she doesn’t need to worry either: her right-wing faction will look after her and make sure she remains on their list to remain minister, even if Albo had the courage to leave her, which, let’s face it, he doesn’t have.
There could be other minor changes to the list of 45 ministers and deputy ministers, including name changes in portfolios, because that always gives the false impression of change when in fact there is none.
But since Albo is trying to make a virtue of the fact that he has made no changes to his ministry in his first two years, touting his inaction in the face of failure as a strength, I prefer minimal changes rather than a major shakeup.