- DailyMail.com/JL Partners modeling shows several key states moving closer to Trump
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Former President Donald Trump has widened his lead in the Daily Mail’s electoral model, which now gives him his best chance of victory over Kamala Harris in the November election.
Favorable polling in the critical state of Michigan, putting him one point ahead of his Democratic opponent, helped propel him to a nearly 18-point lead, up two points from last week.
But many things can change in the final weeks of the campaign.
And with Trump with a 58.8 percent chance of winning to Harris’ 41.1 percent, the outcome remains in undecided territory.
However, the latest polling data now suggests that Trump is on track to win 301 electoral college votes to Harris’ 236, his most decisive lead yet.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at JL Partners who crunches the numbers, said in his latest briefing note: “Things continue to move against Harris: Trump’s probability of victory has increased by another two points since last week.”
‘The win probability gap has now widened to almost 18 points.
‘The fact that Michigan has joined Trump’s camp is significant and a blow to the Harris campaign.
“This week’s new polls may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.”
The model weighs all the most recent polling data, along with 80 years of election results and economic statistics to offer each candidate’s chances of winning in the electoral college.
Overall, he predicts that Harris has a much better chance of winning the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).
At the same time, a series of recent polls have shown critical swing states leaning toward the former president.
The most crucial of these may be a poll by Mitchell Research and Communications for Michigan News Source, which showed Trump leading Harris in a head-to-head matchup by one point.
Former President Donald Trump has his biggest lead yet over Vice President Kamala Harris in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners election model, which is updated twice a week.
If all other third-party candidates are included, they will finish tied at 48 percent each.
Last week, our model considered Michigan a swing state. The new poll tilts it toward Trump, who wins in 50.1 percent of simulations.
Among other states, Arizona moves from “Trump leaning” to “Trump likely,” and North Carolina has done the same, falling to the former president in 70.3 percent of simulations.
At the same time, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday showed Harris regaining a national lead over Trump. That could change things in our model once that data is taken into account.
Trump was in Michigan and Wisconsin late last week and is scheduled to campaign in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
Harris was also in Michigan last week and will arrive in Nevada and Arizona later this week.