TOAlmost buried under a recent avalanche of right-wing invective posted by Elon Musk on the platform he owns, X, was one Surprising statement that made space watchers sit up and take notice: a claim that humans could land on Mars within four years and live there in a self-sustaining city within 20.
It seemed like a fanciful boast, even by the standards of the founder of SpaceX and The richest man in the worldwho transformed the logistics and cost of short-duration space travel near Earth orbit with his fleet of reusable Falcon rockets. The US government space agency NASA, which is collaborating with SpaceX on the know-how and technology to bring astronauts to the Red Planet, believes the first manned landing will take place in 2040. It would be “bold”.
Nor was it the first time the enigmatic billionaire had floated such a plan. In 2016, he said he believed those first manned launches to Mars could happen within six years, although a heavy-lift rocket to launch them was still in the concept stage.
However, while many might see Musk’s latest proclamation as another example of his bragging, following stories that he wanted to help populate an alien civilization with his own spermand make it circulate around the Martian surface in Tesla’s rocket. Cyber trucks in troubleSome analysts see a sense of purpose.
If settling a million people on Mars within two decades is an impossible goal, the prospect of regular flights from Earth aboard SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rockets, carrying cargo and the first human explorers, is entirely achievable, they say.
And while Musk’s estimated personal fortune of $250bn (£191bn) can’t even come close to funding what would be the most expensive and extensive project in the history of spaceflight, dwarfing the $280bn (£270bn) project,in today’s money) NASA spent a lot of money on the Apollo program that put man on the Moon in 1969, which will have potential investors, both public and private, excited.
Musk’s tweet, experts say, has accelerated debate over SpaceX’s immediate ambitions and the long-term prospects for humanity itself.
“If I had to diagnose why this very aggressive timeline is now being set for Mars, it’s partly to show that SpaceX is not slowing down, it’s not resting on its laurels, it’s not becoming some kind of dominant player in space and it remains the innovative, boundary-pushing startup that it is,” he said. Matias WeinzierlProfessor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, specializing in the economics of space.
“Whether it’s Elon Musk, Gwynne Shotwell (SpaceX COO) or the incredible amount of talent they have, I think SpaceX is really good at two things, among many others. One is turning market forces into achievements that were previously thought unattainable, and the other is turning those unattainable visions into market success.
“For them, that is the core of Mars: attracting talent, passion, capital and hard work from the people associated with SpaceX. The mission to Mars has always been a central element of their existence.
“On a broader level, when you’re trying to build a company that’s going to change what we do in space on a truly unprecedented scale and rethink the future of humanity, then having a vision of that scale makes it much more possible.”
Weinzierl noted that revenue from Musk’s other commercial space operations, particularly the Star Link Satellite Internet System and its Militarized Sister Network Star shieldis critical to funding its goals. But, similar to the Falcon rockets and recyclable Dragon capsules that have made flying astronauts cheaply to the International Space Station almost routine, SpaceX’s refurbishment and reuse model can work for Mars, too.
“It’s always hard to know precisely how SpaceX calculates these things because it’s private, but when they talk about the cost of flying Starship, the numbers are surprisingly low, in the tens of millions, or even $10 million per flight,” Weinzierl said.
“You can imagine how they think about this as something they can independently fund with revenues from these lines of business that they will try to continue to grow with additional funding from their many investors and supporters, and potentially more public funding.
“But settling a million people on Mars? That’s a completely different question.”
Overcoming the practical and technical challenges of such an undertaking is another hurdle, given that Starship has made only four test flights, the first two of which ended in fiery explosions. A fifth experimental flight is planned. This week on land until at least November due to environmental concerns.
In addition, a yet-to-be-developed tanker spacecraft will be needed for Refuel the spacecraft in orbit So it can carry a payload of 100 tons, or crews of 100 at a time, on the six-month journey to Mars.
“We’re talking about a significant development time. While it’s not impossible that this could be done in time for a launch two years from now, it’s a bit of a stretch,” said Robert Zubrin, president of The Mars Society and author of The New World on Mars: What We Can Create on the Red Planet.
“The year 2028 is totally possible. We are talking about a one-way trip to Mars now, but we don’t want to send people on a one-way trip until there are greenhouses and settlements and all that, a place to live.
“This is one of the problems I have with Musk’s statement. I don’t get the sense that they are really developing the surface systems necessary for human operations on Mars. They are working very hard on the transportation system, but on the system to produce, for example, methane and oxygen on Mars on a large scale, they are not doing that.
“Musk seems to be under a bit of pressure right now, and he could be under even more pressure if Donald Trump wins the election and is appointed commissioner of government efficiency, or whatever he is talking about becoming.”
Zubrin shares Weinzierl’s confidence that SpaceX is likely to end up delivering on most of Musk’s vision for Mars, though not on the timeline he’s proposing.
“Starship is going to be operational, I think it’s advanced enough that I can say that with confidence,” he said. “To put things in perspective, Musk frequently exaggerates, both in terms of what he’s going to do and when he’s going to do it, but he does, and has done, a lot, apart from the concrete achievement of dramatically reducing the cost of space launch by demonstrating the utility of reusability.”
Meanwhile, Weinzierl says SpaceX has grown as a company to the point that if Musk were no longer running operations, it might not matter.
“They have an incredible ability to attract talent and that speaks to a culture that they have clearly built and maintained and that can be largely attributed, at least initially, to Elon Musk. There is no doubt that he is a unique force in the company and in society,” he said.
“At this point, I get the sense that this culture has become so ingrained in so many people in the company that it doesn’t depend on him as much as we might fear. We wouldn’t want him to depend on any one person in particular, and I get the sense that it doesn’t.”