- 22% said they were less likely to support Trump after the conviction, calling it important.
- Their preferences are key even as Republicans show less faith in the courts.
Details within a poll about Donald Trump’s conviction in the Stormy Daniels case provide red flags for the former president among a key segment of independent voters who are key to his bid to retake the White House.
A majority of independents said flatly in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll that Trump was guilty of falsifying business records in the hush money case, charges a jury found Trump committed.
That is the starting point for a series of evaluations in which independents weigh in on the importance of the convictions and whether they will affect their vote.
The results come even as Trump is campaigning across the country calling the case against him “rigged,” while Joe Biden’s campaign has stepped up its public attacks on Trump, whom Biden now regularly calls a “convicted felon.” .
There is also a substantial portion (about a fifth of the electorate) who say Trump’s conviction makes them less likely to support the former president. Twenty-two percent of Americans said that made them less likely to support Trump and said his conviction was important to their vote.
Another 6 percent group called the verdict important, but said it made them more likely to back Trump.
Former President Donald Trump continues to energize his base, as he did Tuesday in Racine, Wisconsin. But detailed poll data reveals that a portion of independent voters viewed his conviction in the Stormy Daniels case as important and said it made them less likely to support him.
In a close election, about a fifth of Americans and about a fifth of independents who say they are less likely to support Trump after the verdict could be a key force.
A 57 percent majority of independents said they understand the details of the case well or somewhat well, indicating they had been following the trial, which featured explosive testimony from porn star and former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen.
Ninety-two percent of Democrats said Trump was guilty, compared to 16 percent of Republicans.
And 23 percent of independents said the verdict made them less likely to support Trump and called his conviction “very important.”
This is a substantial group of voters who could swing a close election if their opinions hold.
An ongoing concern for Trump’s camp is whether a portion of the “never-Trump” Republicans who backed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would abandon him. The poll also shows that a small group of Republicans did not like what they saw in the trial.
While 42 percent of Republicans said Trump’s conviction made them feel guilty. further They are likely to support the former president, with 9 percent saying that made them less supportive. Another 9 percent said they didn’t know.
Thirty percent of independents rated Trump’s conviction as very or somewhat important, and 31 percent of Republicans rated it as very or somewhat important, compared to 49 percent of Democrats.
Twenty-six percent of independents called “how I vote” “very important,” and another 9 percent called it “somewhat important.”
There are also responses within the survey that reveal how some of the attacks on the courts and prosecutors have resonated with their supporters.
President Joe Biden called Trump a ‘convicted felon’ at a fundraiser Tuesday night.
Republicans, by a margin of 63 to 14, believe President Biden was directly involved in the decision to impeach Trump. But among independents, only 23 percent agree, compared to 42 percent who say Biden was not involved.
And independents surveyed want Trump to arrive on time for his felony sentencing. A total of 42 percent think he should be jailed, 21 percent say he should get probation and 17 percent say he should pay a financial fine.
Seventy-three percent of Democrats want Trump imprisoned, but only five percent of Republicans do. But even among Republicans, 17 percent want Trump to get probation and 24 percent say he should pay only a fine, with a narrow majority of 51 percent saying he should not receive any fine.
