Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voters could help Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in the November presidential election, according to an exclusive DailyMail.com poll.
This shows that his supporters are leaning towards Trump over Harris by a margin of two to one.
Although JFK’s nephew is only showing in the single digits in the polls, that kind of boost could be enough to tip the balance toward Trump in a tight race that will be decided by only tens of thousands of voters in a handful of key states.
The issue could take on new urgency on Friday amid speculation that RFK Jr. is preparing to retire.
He is scheduled to speak in Phoenix, Arizona, “on the current historic moment and his path forward,” at 2 p.m. Eastern time, and has already withdrawn his name from the state’s ballot.
JL Partners conducted two surveys of more than 1,000 likely voters on voting intention and political attitudes. By combining the data, it is possible to see which way RFK Jr. voters lean when the choice turns to Trump or Harris, with more than half leaning toward the former president. The polls were conducted Aug. 7-11.
Our latest poll with JL Partners, conducted August 7-11, found that out of 1,001 likely voters, only five percent would vote for Kennedy if the election were held tomorrow.
He was far behind Trump at 43 percent and Harris at 41 percent.
But when that poll was combined with a second survey asking whether they lean more toward Trump or Harris, the results appear to be decisive: More than half (51 percent) said they leaned toward the former president.
About a quarter (26 percent) said they leaned more toward Harris.
That could boost Trump’s voter base by a point or two if Kennedy no longer runs.
“Don’t think that RFK Jr. is making only a small difference in the election,” said JL Partners co-founder James Johnson.
‘This is the withdrawal of a major third-party candidate.
“And our data shows that even before that, RFK Jr. voters were going to support Trump by a wide margin if their guy wasn’t in the race.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has officially filed paperwork withdrawing his name from the presidential race in Arizona amid rumors that he will drop out of the election on Friday.
Our poll shows Donald Trump will get more votes for RFK Jr. than Harris
The data can also be used to see what happens to people who voted for Biden in 2020 but said they now back RFK Jr. More than a quarter say they lean toward Trump.
RFK Jr., 70, an environmental lawyer with a nose for conspiracy theories and anti-vaccine arguments, entered the race as a Democrat.
But he switched to the independent party after failing to beat Biden in the primaries.
Previous polls by JL Partners had shown that he had gained more support from the left than from the right.
“The data also shows that there is a small but significant group of voters who went for Biden in 2020, leaned toward RFK Jr. and are now leaning toward Trump,” Johnson said.
‘These voters, who used RFK Jr. as a sort of gateway drug to support Trump, could make the difference in swing states, and RFK Jr.’s withdrawal will give Trump a boost in those states.
“It’s a more significant development than anything that came out of the Democratic National Convention this week.”
Trump is touring battleground states and is scheduled to hold a rally near Phoenix shortly after RFK Jr.’s announcement.
His campaign has included a special guest, raising speculation that Kennedy will endorse the former president.
During a trip to the southern border on Thursday, Trump said he was open to that possibility and called it a “great honor.”
He also said there might be room in his administration for RFK Jr., the son of Robert Kennedy, JFK’s attorney general.
But he will have to fight to win the support of RFK Jr.’s supporters.
Harris’ communications director, Michael Tyler, told MSNBC that her campaign would welcome her voters.
“I think her withdrawal completely cements … that this election is going to be a choice between Vice President Harris, who is fighting for the American people, (and) Donald Trump, who … is simply fighting for himself,” he said at the Democratic convention in Chicago.
Kennedy has endured a turbulent campaign. He recently admitted to abandoning a dead bear cub in Manhattan’s Central Park in 2014.
And he has had to contend with limited campaign finances and legal challenges, including a ruling in New York that barred him from appearing on state ballots because he included a “false” address on nominating petitions.