The eyes of the world will be on Pennsylvania on Nov. 5, and the battleground state could decide who wins the 2024 election.
DailyMail.com’s recent poll in the state has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 47 percent, meaning the eventual winner will likely be decided by a very narrow margin.
In 2020, it took four days to finish counting the Keystone State results and ensure victory for Joe Biden.
The Commonwealth is critical to both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reaching the White House, and a key question for voters is: Will the election be fair?
According to our new poll, a majority of Pennsylvanians are confident that the integrity of their recount will remain intact. But some Trump voters are skeptical.
Seventy-one percent of voters agreed that Pennsylvania’s election “would be conducted fairly and securely,” according to a new Daily Mail/JL Partners poll.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump gestures as he concludes his speech at a campaign event at the Butler Farm Show, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024.
Only 20 percent of all likely voters in the survey said the election would not be held freely or fairly. Only nine percent said they didn’t know.
The survey of 800 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted between October 5 and 8.
Thirty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters who plan to vote for Trump in 2024 believe the election will not be secure and fair, while 53 percent of them expressed confidence in the system. Twelve percent said they did not know.
The same number of those who voted for the former president in 2020 also consider that there is a risk of fraud.
Former President Donald Trump has urged his followers to “flood the vote” to avoid any type of electoral fraud.
“You’ve got to get your friends together and vote because, you know, they pull a lot of dirty tricks on this particular other side,” Trump told supporters at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, earlier this month, urging them to help him increase the score.
‘We cannot allow this to happen. We cannot allow this to happen again,’ he said.
Supporters react during a campaign rally for Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris, in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Trump openly protested the 2020 election results in Pennsylvania, alleging that Democrats had used the mail-in voting system as a weapon for cheating. The Trump campaign tried unsuccessfully to challenge the election results in Pennsylvania, alleging irregularities in mail-in voting.
“If the election doesn’t go Trump’s way – or the margins are very close – all the ingredients are there for a toxic electoral process that could cast doubt on the outcome,” James Johnson, co-founder of JL.Partners told DailyMail.com about the survey results.
Johnson said the Daily Mail’s modeling showed a 30 percent change in a count in at least one state.
“This is not inconsiderable and suggests that drama is on the way,” he concluded.
Dave Westrom, 62, talked about the election with DailyMail.com while waiting for Trump to appear at a town hall in Oaks, Pennsylvania.
“I think there’s only one issue in this election, and that’s whether it’s rigged or not,” he said. “And I don’t think the Republicans are very smart, and I don’t think they’ve done enough to take steps to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
Westrom was wearing a T-shirt that said “I need new conspiracy theories.” My old ones came true.’ He said he was skeptical of election polls indicating it would be a close election.
“I don’t believe the polls right now, because I think they’re trying to convince everyone that they’re really close, so that when the election happens, they can do what they did in 2020,” he said.
Supporters attend a town hall with Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center.
Dave Westrom, 62, waits for a Trump campaign event in Oaks, Pennsylvania
Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris (left) waves to a supporter after speaking at a campaign rally at Erie Insurance Arena in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Harris supporters appear to trust the electoral system more, as the poll showed that only six percent said they did not trust their electoral system and six percent did not know. Eighty-seven percent of Harris supporters expressed confidence in the existing system.
Pennsylvania is considered the biggest prize for presidential campaigns, as its 19 electoral college votes will help either candidate win comfortably.
Election laws in Pennsylvania remain largely unchanged from 2020, as divided state legislatures were unable to agree on any substantial election law reforms.
The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania refused in early October to issue a decision on two different rules for mail-in ballots, as the ACLU attempted to challenge a rule requiring ballots to be properly dated in order to count.
“This Court will not impose or tolerate substantial modifications to existing laws and procedures pending an ongoing election,” the court order said.
The court also declined to rule on some counties’ practice of notifying voters if their ballot had an error, requiring it to be corrected before it could be counted.