As November 5 approaches, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) warned on Wednesday that malicious foreign influence operations launched by Russia, China and Iran against the US presidential election continue to evolve and should not ignored even though they have already come to an end. feel inevitable. In the group’s fifth report, investigators emphasize the variety of activities underway, as well as the inevitability that attackers will work to stoke doubts about the integrity of the election in the aftermath.
Despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East, Microsoft says Iran has been able to maintain its operations targeting the US elections, particularly targeting the Trump campaign and attempting to foment anti-Israel sentiment. Meanwhile, Russian actors have focused on attacking Harris’ campaign with attacks on AI-generated characters and content, including deepfakes. And China has shifted its focus in recent weeks, researchers say, to target down-ballot Republican candidates as well as sitting members of Congress who promote policies adverse to China or in conflict with its interests.
Crucially, the MTAC says these actors will almost certainly attempt to stoke division and distrust in the security of voting on Election Day and immediately afterward.
“As MTAC observed during the 2020 presidential cycle, foreign adversaries will amplify allegations of voter fraud, voter fraud, or other election integrity issues to sow chaos among the American electorate and undermine international confidence in the political stability of the United States. “the researchers wrote in their report. .
As the 2024 campaign season enters its final phase, researchers say they expect to see AI-generated media continue to appear in new campaigns, particularly because content can spread very quickly in the loading period immediately around the day. of the elections. The report also notes that Microsoft has detected Iranian actors investigating election-related websites and media outlets, “suggesting preparations for more direct influence operations as election day approaches.”
The focus of Chinese actors on US congressional elections and other figures also indicates a fluidity and far-reaching approach to deploying influence operations. Chinese-backed groups have recently launched campaigns against U.S. Rep. Barry Moore and U.S. Sens. Marsha Blackburn and Marco Rubio (who is not currently running for re-election), pushing corruption allegations and promoting opposition candidates.
MSTAC says many influence campaigns by all actors fail to gain traction. But the efforts remain significant, because the narratives that do break through can have a significant impact, and the overall activity contributes to the volume and intensity of false and misleading claims circulating in the news landscape surrounding the election.
“History has shown that the ability of foreign actors to rapidly distribute misleading content can significantly affect public perception and election results,” MSTAC General Manager Clint Watts wrote in a blog post on Wednesday. “With particular attention to the 48 hours before and after Election Day, voters, government institutions, candidates and parties should remain vigilant for deceptive and suspicious online activity.”