Goldman Sachs has delivered a surprising verdict on which presidential candidate will boost the economy the most if he wins in November.
Kamala Harris would be better for the US economy if she beats Donald Trump, investment bank says
A Democratic victory would create about 30,000 more jobs per month than a Republican victory, according to a new analysis by the bank.
The Wall Street giant believes Harris’ plans to help middle-class Americans and small businesses would boost consumer spending, benefiting the overall economy.
That boost would offset any negative impact from potential higher taxes on the wealthy and big corporations, the report said.
Goldman Sachs believes a Harris victory in November would be best for the US economy
“A Harris presidency could benefit small and medium-sized businesses, as the focus would appear to be on fiscal policies that provide support through tax incentives and grants for startups,” Javier Molina, senior market analyst at eToro, told DailyMail.com.
“Harris is also expected to generate greater job creation compared to Trump, especially if accompanied by fiscal stimulus and larger tax credits. This could lead to moderate job growth, boosting sectors such as renewable energy and infrastructure,” Molina explained.
Conversely, if Donald Trump wins, inflation would rise and economic output would suffer in 2025, the Goldman Sachs report says.
The blow is believed to be the result of stricter immigration policies that Trump has advocated and the increase in import tariffs that the former president has threatened.
“We estimate that if Trump wins overwhelmingly or with a divided government, the impact on growth of tariffs and stricter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal boost,” the bank’s report said.
Higher tariffs on goods such as electric cars from China, Mexico and the EU would push core inflation higher, the banks said.
Economists widely view immigration as a driver of growth, as immigrants tend to be younger, boosting the labor market and spending.
Goldman argues that limiting immigration in the ways Trump plans to do would eliminate those engines of growth, damaging the country’s bottom line.
The report comes as the race between Vice President Harris and the former president intensifies less than two months before the nation goes to the polls.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has urged candidates to support small businesses
Forty-three percent of voters have more confidence in Trump on the economy, compared with 40 percent who trust Harris more, according to a recent Reuters/IPSOS poll.
The economy is a key battleground for candidates as voters emerge from years of inflation, higher mortgage rates and this summer’s volatile stock market.
Goldman Sachs, led by David Solomon, has urged both candidates to put small businesses at the center of their policy platforms.
The bank has placed billboards in New York’s Times Square ahead of the Sept. 10 debate reading: “Small businesses employ nearly half of American workers. Let’s make SMALL BUSINESS part of the debate.”
Meanwhile, a seasoned financial guru has revealed the financial moves that will be made if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election.
Sean Bryant warned there will be a “guaranteed impact” on the US stock market no matter who wins the White House in November: Trump or Kamala Harris.