Almost every modern presidential election cycle in the United States has been altered by an unforeseen “surprise” of one kind or another.
In July 1972, Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern was shocked to learn, after his party’s summer convention, that his running mate Thomas Eagleton had secretly received electroshock therapy to treat bouts of depression.
That was enough to discredit Eagleton with the Democratic Party’s big nonsense and help doom McGovern’s campaign.
Eight years later, I was working as a strategist for Ronald Reagan’s 1980 presidential campaign when my bosses coined the phrase “October Surprise.”
They worried that our opponent, President Jimmy Carter, would transform the race by negotiating a last-minute deal with armed Iranian revolutionaries to release the 53 American hostages who had been held in Tehran for more than a year.
Of course, everyone wanted the hostages to be released no matter the circumstances, but it was our job to anticipate the possible political consequences of such an event.
Now, in 2024, here we are again.
It’s early October, less than four weeks until the election, and another October surprise is brewing.
This is not the work of man. It is not the result of an unforced error by a misbehaving candidate.
It’s an act of God bearing down on the critical swing state of Florida.
It’s early October, less than four weeks until the election, and another October surprise is brewing.
First, I pray that everyone affected by Hurricane Milton emerges from this storm safely and free of property loss.
I also recognize that, tragically, this is an unlikely outcome. That is why I offer this analysis as a political strategist and pollster, fully aware that many things in life are more important than an election.
But is it my job to consider what might happen? And I’ve come to the conclusion that Milton can be a game-changer on November 5th.
Let me explain to you:
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Florida by more than 370,000 votes, which is equivalent to just 3 percentage points.
This is a decent margin in the Sunshine State, but not dominant.
Trump won in 2020, in part, by increasing the number of Republicans in ruby-red Republican counties like Pasco, Marion and Sarasota, near Tampa.
High turnout in those Republican strongholds offset Democratic victories in blue regions of the state, such as Miami-Dade County in southeast Florida.
But now, Hurricane Milton is making its way directly into the heart of Florida, and places like Pasco and Sarasota are directly in its path.
(Above) Hundreds of people shelter at Virgil Mills Elementary School ahead of Hurricane Milton, in Palmetto, Florida.
(Above) Robert Haight looks around his destroyed home after it was hit by a tornado in Fort Myers, Florida, on October 9, 2024.
Of the 15 Florida counties under state mandatory evacuation orders, 14 are predominantly, if not overwhelmingly, Republican.
The total number of registered Republican voters in those 15 counties is just over two million, while the number of registered Democrats in those same counties is about 1.2 million.
Approximately 800,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the state of Florida are being ordered to leave their homes.
And that can have a huge impact.
In the 2020 election, there was a whopping 77 percent turnout rate in Florida, meaning nearly one in eight eligible voters cast a ballot.
What will it be in 2024?
Both Florida Democrats and Republicans in these areas impacted by Milton will be under duress, hopefully not in mortal danger, but certainly disadvantaged or inconvenienced to the point that they may not vote.
For the sake of argument, consider what happens if dislocation, financial loss, physical harm, or emotional stress reduce Florida’s participation rate to 40 percent.
That’s a realistic assumption. Who would bother to vote if their house had been ripped off its foundation or their truck had been destroyed, or worse?
At that 40 percent suppressed rate, only 320,000 Republicans in these affected counties would show up on Election Day or mail in their ballot.
That’s a projected loss of 280,000 Republican votes.
Remember, Trump only won by 370,000.
In other words, this election may have gotten much, much closer.
And now let’s add to these calculations the additional motivating factors that are driving Florida Democrats to the polls.
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There is a measure on the ballot that would establish the right to abortion in the Florida Constitution, and another would legalize recreational marijuana.
Many of my fellow Republican strategists underestimated the electoral impact of abortion measures in the 2020 midterms, predicting a “Red Wave” for the Republican Party across the country.
I thought the opposite and said it on national television at the time.
In fact, the “Red Wave” never materialized.
There are reasons for Donald Trump’s campaign to be concerned.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is an honorable guy and understands that his primary duty is to protect the people and property in his state.
But I hope the governor’s office, among its many initiatives in the coming days, will also think about how this storm could disenfranchise voters.
Perhaps the Governor can relax absentee voting rules or, better yet, attach an absentee ballot (Democratic and Republican) to every relief package his Office of Emergency Management distributes.
By doing so, the Governor will fulfill his obligations to protect life and democracy.
No race should be won because Americans couldn’t vote.
Craig Keshishian was a project director on President Reagan’s election staff and later served in Reagan’s Office of Presidential Speechwriting and Research.
