A mega-earthquake could strike the heart of the United States (home to at least 11 million Americans) within the next 50 years.
Scientists say a little-known 150-mile-long stretch of land running through Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois has the conditions to generate an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater.
This week, the National Guard in San Luis conducted earthquake preparedness drills that simulated a focused response to a magnitude 8.4 earthquake.
Experts estimate the likelihood of an earthquake of that size occurring in the next 50 years is about 40 percent, and “every year that goes by, the probability gets higher,” according to Robbie Myers, emergency coordinator for the Missouri Department of Safety.
The 150-mile-long New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), which spans parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois, has up to a 40 percent chance of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake occurring within the next 50 years.
IThe most significant destruction is forecast to occur in St. Louis, Missouri, and Memphis.
But Myers said thousands of people could die, bridges across the Mississippi River could collapse, major highways including Interstate 55 could collapse, while oil and gas pipelines could rupture, causing disruption across the country.
Historical records have shown that from December 1811 to February 1812, the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) triggered three major events believed to have reached magnitude 7 or greater, as well as ruptures in the 15th and 10th centuries.
“(An earthquake) in the next 50 years is a strong possibility and people should take precautions,” Myers said.
“At the moment there is nothing more urgent and with each passing year the probability increases.”
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released its latest National Seismic Hazard Model earlier this year, concluding that 75 percent of the country (home to hundreds of millions of Americans) is at risk of damaging earthquakes.
The model, last updated in 2018, included 350 fault lines, bringing the total to about 1,000 faults.
The most famous is the San Andreas, which runs through California, but other researchers have been sounding the alarm about the NMSZ.
Missourians had earthquake drills in schools, and many remembered them for as long as they could remember.
Eric Sandvol, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Missouri, told DailyMail.com that scientists need to “do more to understand earthquakes in this region.”
The National Guard held its first earthquake training this week in Missouri, and cities like Memphis and St. Louis are renovating bridges in preparation.
“What we’re really worried about in the event of an earthquake like this are the bridges, because they are bridges,” Sandvol said.
‘If we lose many bridges here, transportation will be much more difficult.
“We may have to rely much more heavily on air to get aid and assistance to a damaged area, and getting people out of there will be a much bigger challenge.”
At least 11 million Americans live within the danger zone, with the most significant destruction expected to occur in St. Louis and Memphis, experts told DailyMail.com.
Chris Cramer, a geophysicist at the University of Memphis, said: Without darkness that a major earthquake near New Madrid would cost the country an average of $10 billion a year for 100 years in damage to buildings and lost infrastructure.
Most of the US earthquake preparations so far have focused on California, where experts say “The Big One” – a massive quake in which tectonic plates slide past each other along the 800-mile-long San Andreas fault – should have occurred about 80 years ago.
That focus in California has made it difficult for experts in Missouri and other fault states to convince officials and the public to be prepared.
An earthquake in this area could be more dangerous than one recorded on the West Coast, the Missouri Department of Health said.
“Due to the nature of the bedrock of the Earth’s crust in the central United States, earthquakes in this region can shake an area approximately 20 times larger than earthquakes in California,” the Missouri Department of Natural Resources said in a blog post.
Earthquakes occur when tectonic plates suddenly slide past each other, releasing energy in waves that travel through the Earth’s crust and cause the ground to shake.
Sandvol told DailyMail.com that unlike California, which has two tectonic plates, the Midwest has none.
“You’re in the middle of the North American plate. In fact, the closest plate boundary you have is the Caribbean,” he said.
“So how come there are earthquakes there? A partial answer to that is that we’re not really sure there are that many. We don’t understand anything about it.”
That means there are faults that trigger earthquakes, which is why tremors in the area are so rare, he explained. The Kansas City Star.
“Most earthquakes occur at the edge of these plates, such as in California, where we find the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates,” he continued.
Sandvol told DailyMail.com that the NMSZ is likely to experience a major earthquake due to the operation of the Richter scale, which he noted is no longer used.
“It says that if a magnitude 7 earthquake occurs within a period of 100 years,” the professor explained.
‘So over that same period, we would expect to have 10 magnitude 6 earthquakes, 100 magnitude 5 earthquakes, and 1,000 magnitude 4 earthquakes.
“If we look at the pattern here for each unit of magnitude, we expect there to be 10 times as many small earthquakes as large earthquakes.”
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