Most voters who watched the first 2024 presidential debate felt that Republican nominee Donald Trump could beat several potential Democratic candidates, such as Biden, if he were replaced on the ticket.
The statement comes from a series of surveys compiled by FiveThirtyEight, a company that uses statistical analysis to show the lay of the land in various elections.
A group of polls by Data for Progress showed Trump beating a number of high-profile Biden replacements, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris.
In the poll, Trump led Newsom 47 percent to 44 and beat Harris 48 to 45.
In even more gloomy news for Democrats was the poll’s prediction that Trump would also defeat Biden, as the president’s campaign continues to spiral following Thursday’s disastrous debate.
Most voters who watched the first presidential debate felt that Republican candidate Donald Trump could beat several candidates besides Biden if he were replaced.
The claim comes from a series of polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight, a company that uses statistics to show the situation in various elections. The analysis looked at polls conducted in the wake of Biden’s performance in Thursday’s debate, as Democrats consider replacing him.
In addition to Newsom and Harris, Data for Progress research, which used responses from more than 1,000 people, had Trump beating Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 47 to 44 if the election were held today.
Also losing in a hypothetical election against Trump was the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker, who only obtained 43 percent compared to 46 percent for the Republican candidate.
Other candidates like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker fared barely better (both got 44 percent to Trump’s 46) in the same sample used by Data for Progress.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania also lost by a three percent margin when they faced Trump.
All showed Trump outperforming a series of ‘replacements,’ including California’s Gavin Newsom.
White House candidate Kamala Harris also fell when she faced the former president, falling three percent behind in a poll of 1,011 likely voters.
The latter two had been considered possible Democratic presidential candidates in the past, but both have maintained their devotion to Biden.
The latest poll by Data for Progress on Friday found that Trump beat Biden by a comfortable three percent, while a survey of 841 registered voters sponsored by the New York Post found Biden falling short by seven percent.
The results come amid an air of uncertainty about the Democratic Party’s top choice, as Biden’s faltering debate performance continues to be questioned.
A replacement would be possible but unlikely, experts said, as the process would be complicated and open the door to the loss of a united front before the scheduled vote on nominees at their convention in August.
The Democratic National Committee’s official procedures for the convention, adopted in 2022, give the committee the authority to choose a new candidate if any member of the slate dies or withdraws.
Biden also has the power to withdraw himself from the race, freeing up all the pledged delegates he has accumulated.
That’s 3,894 of 3,937 so far, according to a count by The Associated Press.
Should such an election take place, such delegates would be free to vote for whomever they wished, with the six aforementioned candidates appearing as substitutes.
Potential replacements, such as Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois and Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, also lost by a three percent margin when facing Trump.
White House Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also lost by three percent to Trump, and November is just weeks away.
Other candidates like Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey fared slightly better, albeit by just one percentage point, in the same sample set used by Data for Progress.
The results come amid an air of uncertainty over the Democratic Party’s top choice, as Biden’s faltering performance in the debate continues to be questioned.
The move would lead to an open convention, something unheard of in the current political state.
If Biden decides to retire, he would also like to endorse a potential successor.
The obvious choice would be Vice President Harris, whom the president has reportedly referred to as a “work in progress.”
A report earlier this year further claimed Harris was still struggling to penetrate what she called the Biden campaign’s “thinking bubble,” as Michigan’s Whitmer and Newsom have also often mentioned.
In the event of an open convention, the candidate with the majority support of party delegates would receive the endorsement, even if Biden did not list them as his successor.
At the time of writing, the president has not expressed any plans to withdraw from the race.
Asked Friday about that possibility while campaigning in North Carolina, he said, “I know I’m not a young man, I don’t walk as easily as I used to, I don’t talk as softly as I used to.” I don’t debate as well as I used to.
“But I know what I know,” he continued, to thunderous applause. “I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done.”
“I know, as many Americans know, that when you fall, you get back up,” he concluded.
