Home prices in swing states could keep Joe Biden in the White House in the next presidential election, a first-of-its-kind study suggests.
the academic study analyzed home prices and election results at the county level for each of the six presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, real estate agent.com reported.
Counties where home prices had increased in the four years before the election were more likely to “switch votes” to the presidential candidate of the ruling party, it found.
In counties where home price performance was worse, Americans were more likely to lean their vote toward the rival candidate, whether Democrat or Republican.
Home prices were most influential in the “swing counties” of the seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the study found.
Home prices in swing states could keep Joe Biden in the White House in the next presidential election, first-of-its-kind study suggests
Home prices have skyrocketed across the United States over the past four years. But gains have surpassed the national average in four of these swing states, suggesting this trend could favor the incumbent president in November.
The reason behind this trend is simple, according to the study’s authors.
For most Americans, their home is their largest asset, which means they tend to vote for candidates and policies that they believe will increase its value.
“People feel wealthier financially if they have a lot of home equity, compared to lower home equity,” co-author Alan Tidwell, an associate professor of finance at the University of Alabama, told Realtor.com.
“The degree of financial wealth they feel really influences their sense of financial and economic well-being.”
National home values have increased a whopping 46.4 percent from March 2020 to March 2024, according to the Freddie Mac Home Price Index.
But in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin, all four-year price increases were greater than 50 percent.
In Arizona, home prices rose 59.7 percent, in Georgia they rose 58.7 percent, in North Carolina they rose 62.4 percent, and in Wisconsin they rose 50.8 percent.
In swing counties, voters care more about home prices, and real estate is a major driver of household wealth, said lead author Eren Cifci, an assistant professor of finance at Austin State University. Peay in Tennessee.
“So there may be many other factors that affect how people vote, but this definitely seems to be one of the factors that influence voters when they make their decisions.”
On the map below, hover your mouse if you’re on a computer or place your finger on a smartphone to see more details for each state.
In Arizona, home prices have increased 59.7 percent over the past four years.
To conduct the study, the authors looked at voting results for every U.S. county over the past six presidential elections.
Of those counties, 77 percent never changed their partisan preference, it found.
But in 641 (or 23 percent) of the counties, voters switched parties at least once during the survey period, with some switching as many as four times.
Within the subset of swing counties, for every 1 percent increase in home values during the four years leading up to an election, the county was 0.36 percent more likely to vote for the party in power in the next elections.
The study also found that every 1 percent in home prices made the county 0.19 percent more likely to “switch” to vote for the incumbent party’s candidate.
“The higher the return (on home values), the more likely you are to vote for the incumbent or change your mind for the incumbent,” Tidwell told Realtor.com.
“For every percentage positive return, there is a percentage increase in voting for the incumbent.”
On the map below, hover your mouse if you’re on a computer or place your finger on a smartphone to see more details of each area.
The authors wish to emphasize that there are many other factors at play during an election, and the performance of house prices is not “a forecast in itself.”
Republican candidate Donald Trump has launched attacks on the Biden administration over rising prices, while the housing market has become a key issue for voters.
“Under President Biden, home prices have risen nearly 50 percent, making it nearly impossible for millennials to buy their first home and pushing the American dream further and further away,” Senator Tim Scott, a supporter, wrote in X. of Trump.
But in the meantime, Biden supporters have pointed to rising home values as a key source of equity for existing homeowners.