There are early signs that obesity rates may have declined in the United States for the first time.
A report released Tuesday by the CDC found that 40 percent of American adults were obese between 2021 and 2023, up from 42 percent between 2017 and 2020.
This is the first time there has been a year-over-year decline since the CDC began tracking the metric in 2013, although the change is not statistically significant.
At the very least, this means obesity rates are no longer rising. The downward trend comes amid a boom in Ozempic and other weight-loss drugs, though experts say it’s too early to tell whether they’re playing a role.
Despite the tentative positive trend, obesity rates remain higher than they were 10 years ago, when 38 percent of adults had a BMI over 30 and more Americans were morbidly obese than ever before.
The map above shows changes in obesity rates by state from 2022 to 2023.
It is unclear why obesity rates are falling across the country, but experts told DailyMail.com the decline is not statistically significant and there is more work to be done.
Today, one in 10 (30 million) Americans is considered “severely obese,” with a BMI greater than 40.
That’s up from one in 13 a decade ago, putting them at greater risk of problems like type 2 diabetes, heart disease and high blood pressure.
Still, the CDC noted that Southern states like Louisiana and Oklahoma, which have historically had high rates, were among the 22 states that saw declines in obesity rates last year.
The agency said this gives them optimism about reaching the agency’s Healthy People 2030 goal, which aims to reduce obesity to 36 percent by the end of the decade.
Dr. Samuel D. Emmerich, a CDC researcher who worked on the report, said it’s too early to tell whether drugs like Ozempic have caused any change or will continue to influence overall obesity rates.
However, Dr. Stuart Fischer, an internal medicine physician in New York, told DailyMail.com that While the decline is encouraging, “there is much more work to be done” and the United States is not likely to see a continued decline in obesity due to a high prevalence of ultra-processed foods and a lack of physical activity in general.
“It’s a periodic fluctuation, it’s not a very significant change,” he said. “And 40 percent is still terrifying.”
The data were based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a report from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics that surveys Americans age 20 and older about diet and lifestyle habits.
Researchers measured participants’ height and weight to gauge their BMI. A BMI above 30 is considered obese, while 40 or above is “severe” or “morbid” obesity.
Obesity rates were consistently highest among adults ages 40 to 59. Overall, 46 percent of Americans in that age group were considered obese.
Dr. Fischer noted that this increased prevalence could be due to lifestyle changes in this age range.
“When people get to 40, they don’t go to school, they’re not as active, they don’t play sports,” he said. “And as you get older, your metabolism slows down, especially in that period.”
‘At 40, you are at a crossroads in terms of health.’
When your metabolism slows down, your body burns fewer calories and stores more calories. Over time, this can lead to weight gain and difficulty keeping it off.
This percentage of obese adults in this age range is a staggering jump from the next highest age group, those over 60, of whom 39 percent were considered obese. Meanwhile, 35.5 percent of those between 20 and 39 were obese.
Older adults may be less likely to reach the obesity threshold due to a natural loss of fat and muscle mass over time.
In addition, older adults often have less appetite because their metabolism slows down, meaning they need less energy from food.
They may also lose their taste buds over time, making food less appealing.
Decreased appetite is also a common sign of dementia, which most often affects adults over age 65 and becomes more likely every five years.
As for the younger ones, a CDC Report 2022 Adults ages 18 to 34 were found to be the age group most likely to meet the Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, which recommend 150 minutes of physical activity per week.
This could play a role in reducing the risk of obesity in this age group.
The chart above shows the results of a new CDC report, which states that obesity rates have declined for the first time in history, although they remain higher than in 2013-2014.
The bar chart above shows the age distribution of obesity, according to the CDC report. Adults between 40 and 59 years old were consistently more likely to be obese than other age groups.
The CDC team noted that while 40 percent of Americans overall are obese, there were no significant differences between men and women in any age group.
However, women were twice as likely to be severely obese, meaning they had a BMI above 40. While 6.7 percent of men met this threshold, that number rose to 12.1 percent for women.
This could be due to biological factors such as menopause, excess weight from pregnancy and conditions such as an overactive thyroid, which is about eight times more likely in women than in men.
While the new report shows a decline in obesity overall, additional recent data reveals which states may be behind this downward trend.
Earlier this month, the CDC also released 2023 state-by-state obesity data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, which surveys 400,000 adults in all 50 states, D.C., and three territories.
Compared to last year’s survey, 22 states showed decreases in obesity rates.
The largest decline was seen in Nevada, which fell from 33.6 percent in 2022 to 30.8 percent in 2023.
Idaho and Georgia followed closely behind, declining from 33.2 to 31 percent and 37 to 35 percent, respectively.
Louisiana and Oklahoma, the second and third highest obesity states in 2022, also saw slight declines.
The state with the highest obesity rate in the United States, West Virginia, remained the same at 41.2 percent in both 2022 and 2023.
However, obesity rates rose between 2022 and 2023 in 20 states. Alaska saw the largest increase, rising from 32.2% to 35.2%.
New Mexico followed closely behind with a rate of 35.3, compared to 32.4 in 2022.
New Hampshire, Illinois and Arkansas tied for third for largest increases, all up 2.6 percent between 2022 and 2023.