Donald Trump becomes the first former US president convicted of a crime.
A unanimous New York jury found him guilty on all 34 counts of attempting to illegally cover up a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels to quell a sex scandal he feared would derail his 2016 presidential campaign, just days before the United States United went to the polls.
Paying the hush money was not illegal in itself, but prosecutors successfully argued that it was designed to influence the outcome of the election — a violation of election laws and, prosecutors argued, the underlying crime.
This is highly contentious territory, especially since the trial was virtually silent on violations of campaign laws, which is why the guilty verdict will be immediately appealed. Trump’s defense lawyers have 30 days to prepare an appeal.
Being guilty of 34 charges sounds worse than it is. It only refers to the number of installments by which Trump arranged for his then-lawyer and sleazy middleman, Michael Cohen, to be reimbursed for paying Daniels.
Donald Trump becomes the first former US president convicted of a crime.
In the current bitter mood that reigns in the United States, I would not rule out that this has repercussions to Trump’s benefit.
The prosecution convincingly argued that Trump and his people had covered up these payments to hide their true purpose. But altering corporate accounting entries under New York law is only a misdemeanor or misdemeanor, typically involving just a slap on the wrist.
It linked the payments to a violation of campaign finance law, elevating the matter to the appropriate level of criminality. For many observers the link is very tenuous. It was barely discussed during the trial and no one testified that such a link existed.
Those whose mouths are watering at the prospect of Trump now spending time in jail will have to be patient.
Trump will not remain in pretrial detention awaiting sentencing. There is no risk of leakage. It was a white collar crime involving someone with no prior convictions. Jail would be an unusual outcome.
But of course, this whole trial has been unusual.
The sentence won’t be known until July 11, when Trump could face anything from probation to four years behind bars.
But even if the judge decides on jail time, the guilty verdict will be appealed and Trump will remain free until the appeal process is concluded.
This will take a long time (months, if not years), certainly long enough to leave Trump free to campaign for the presidency until Election Day in November.
He will be sentenced four days before the Republican convention begins in Milwaukee, where Trump will be crowned the party’s presidential nominee.
By then, President Biden will have routinely referred to him as a “convicted felon.” That could hurt him among independent voters and non-MAGA Republicans. But that won’t affect his central vote.
Shortly after the verdict was handed down, the Trump campaign website went down, such was the volume of traffic trying to send donations.
Within minutes of the verdict, Trump was already declaring it a “rigged” trial and a “disgrace.” He will position himself as the victim of a political witch hunt organized by a Democratic Justice Department, a Democratic judge, a Democratic Manhattan prosecutor, and a Democratic New York jury.
There have been enough oddities in the prosecution’s office for this to have merit.
Many (and not just Trump supporters) considered Judge Juan Merchán, who has a say in the sentencing, to be excessively partisan, regularly overruling defense challenges and almost always siding with the prosecution.
Trump didn’t help matters by attacking him regularly. Still, Merchán’s rulings and the controversial conduct of the case will be at the center of the appeal process.
But for now, and until Election Day, the law takes a backseat and politics takes control.
The United States will have to decide whether Trump is, as his opponent and enemies will stigmatize him, a convicted criminal unfit for any public office, let alone the highest in the land. Or someone severely maligned by a politicized legal system that undermines the credibility of the American justice system, making it more akin to a banana republic than a mature democracy.
The Biden campaign already says the result shows that no one is above the law in the United States.
Trump’s people will argue that the complicated legal shenanigans needed to turn a misdemeanor into a felony were designed especially for Trump and would never have been used against anyone else.
In the current bitter mood that reigns in the United States, I would not rule out that this has repercussions to Trump’s benefit.
Whatever the justice of the jury’s decision, you will be excited like never before. So will his followers. The 2024 presidential election just went up in flames.