With most teams only having 10 games left in the 2023-24 Premier League season, each team still has something to fight for, with the battles at the top and bottom of the table teetering delicately on the edge. of the knife.
Arsenal currently lead the way at the top of the Premier League table, but only by virtue of a superior goal difference to Liverpool, and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are just one point behind both.
Similarly, Luton’s late draw at home against Nottingham Forest on Saturday means they are three points behind both the Tricky Trees and Everton in the battle to overcome the drop to the bottom of the table.
And as if that weren’t enough, Tottenham and Aston Villa are separated by just two points in the battle for fourth place, while the next six teams are split by 10 points as they compete to qualify for the Europa League or Conference League.
There’s still a lot to play for across the board, so the final 10 games will have a lot riding on them, but who faces the toughest fight at the end of the campaign? Here Mail Sport presents the results of Opta’s supercomputer.
Arsenal are currently in first place thanks to their superior goal difference over Liverpool.
Manchester City seeks to make history with its fourth consecutive Premier League crown
Manchester United are in the battle for fourth place, but are rapidly losing ground to Tottenham and Aston Villa.
Your browser does not support iframes.
The supercomputer has given each team a rating between 0 and 100 and then assigned a difficulty value to each side to quantify how tough an opponent might be; For example, Manchester City will be much closer to 100 than Burnley as they are probably – the best team in the world.
The average difficulty rating of each team in a club’s final series of matches is then taken, and the numbers are then ranked to show who faces the toughest period of games on paper.
As for the title race, Arsenal appear to face a tougher challenge compared to fellow crown contenders City and Liverpool.
The Gunners still have clashes with Chelsea (H), Man City (A), Aston Villa (H), Tottenham (A) and Man United (A) before finishing the season at home to a potentially relegation-threatened Everton. outside the campaign. Those games give them an average difficulty rating of 88.5 out of a potential 100, fifth highest overall.
Pep Guardiola’s men, for their part, are in 12th place, with an average difficulty of 87.3 thanks to the games against Arsenal (H), Villa (H) and Spurs (A), with Liverpool in 14th place (86.6) and will face United (A). Spurs (H) and Villa (A) before the end of the season.
While any match in England’s top flight can produce surprises and surprising results, on paper it would appear that Liverpool are in the best position heading into the final stretch.
Just behind those three is an equally fierce fight for the top four, and it looks like Aston Villa would do very well to maintain their points lead at the end of the campaign.
Unai Emery’s side have the second toughest overall fixture by numbers, with trips to City and Arsenal and home clashes with Chelsea and Liverpool, as well as a trip to the Amex to face Brighton.
Arteta’s team faces a difficult last 10 games if they want to maintain first position
Liverpool have the easiest matchup among the three title contenders according to Opta’s supercomputer
Manchester City will have a monumental clash with Arsenal at home in two weeks.
Tottenham still have trips to Newcastle and Liverpool but will have home advantage in the north London derby against Arsenal and City, while United’s difficulty rating is the lowest of the three bidding to make the final four. first.
Chelsea and Tottenham have 11 games left (their postponed meeting last month was moved due to the Carabao Cup); However, Opta has not included this match in the calculations, although it is another opportunity for both teams to score points.
In reality, the Blues come out quite well positioned in the standings, as do the Magpies, with both underperformers for 2023-24 looking for simpler conclusions to test campaigns.
Chelsea are in 18th place, their toughest tests being Arsenal (A), United (H) and trips to Brighton and Villa, while Newcastle are in 19th place with clashes against Tottenham (H), Man United (A) and Brighton (H).
Chelsea have a relatively easy matchup: the 18th most difficult in the league
Both teams will also face Sheffield United and Burnley in their final 10 games, the two teams stranded at the bottom of the table and therefore potentially the easiest games of the entire campaign.
Away from the title race and the battle for Champions League qualification, the team that really has the toughest games is Brighton, who have fallen far short of their tremendous feats last season.
The Seagulls’ last 10 games have been given a rating of 89.9, as they will face City (H), Liverpool (A) and Arsenal (H) in their next four games alone, before clashes with Chelsea (H), Villa (H), Newcastle (A) and United (H) in their bottom five.
But not far behind them is Luton, who look to have a very unlikely fight to overcome the drop on their hands with an average difficulty of 88.4, putting them just behind the Gunners.
Burnley and Sheffield United would need to pull off incredible surprise comebacks to have a claim to survival, despite their clashes in 15th and 11th respectively, and they are currently five and eight points behind even Luton.
The Hatters have fights with relegation rivals Forest, a match they drew on Saturday with data released before that match, and Everton (H) and Brentford (H), as well as fixtures with Spurs, City and Arsenal, all outside of home.
Aston Villa currently sit in fourth place, but have the toughest matchup of each of the three teams still competing for their place.
Burnley secured a victory over Brentford, but will face a tough test if they are to stay on their feet.
Rob Edwards’ team Luton have the sixth toughest match-up having drawn one of their easiest matches (1-1 against Forest on Saturday).
Forest and Everton have much easier matchups (17th and 16th respectively), while Brentford have the easiest of all (20th) with a rating of just 85.2 despite fixtures with United (H ), Brighton (H), Villa (A). and Newcastle (H).
Crystal Palace are currently seven clear of Luton, but have the toughest match-up of any team in the bottom half of the league, and with trips to Newcastle, Man City, Aston Villa and Man United, plus the visit of Liverpool. – I could see them getting closer to that dog fight below them.
As such, with a diabolical showdown between them and their rivals going off comparatively easily, things are starting to look even tougher for the Hatters.
There is the small matter of a possible points deduction hanging over Forest’s head which would of course favor Luton, but there is no certainty that will come into play, or be implemented before the end of the season.