Now that Joe Biden has decided to withdraw from the US presidential race but will remain president until the end of his term (assuming he makes it to January next year), Australia must prepare for what comes next.
First, Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to face Republican nominee Donald Trump. Biden immediately endorsed her as his successor.
Harris is therefore almost certain to take the Democratic nomination. Having received the outgoing president’s endorsement, under the party’s delegate rules, she has a strong chance of securing Biden’s nominating votes in the first round, which should be enough to win the Democratic nomination.
Any other outcome would simply prolong the problems of disunity that Democrats have faced.
After weeks of uncertainty, it would be a bold move for Democrats to try to ignore Biden’s endorsement of Harris and use the few weeks remaining before the Democratic convention to find another candidate.
That would require party heavyweights to unite around an alternative candidate at a time when no obvious alternative presents itself.
Bill and Hillary Clinton have already endorsed Harris to run in the general election, and other top Democrats are sure to follow suit soon.
Trump has already targeted Biden on the way out the door, and the Trump campaign in recent days has directed its attack ads toward Harris in anticipation of what has now happened.
So what does a Harris-Trump showdown mean for Australia?
If Trump is elected and Anthony Albanese (pictured) wins a second term, there is a risk that relations between Australia and the United States could cool.
Joe Biden has withdrawn from the presidential race and opened the door for Kamala Harris (pictured together)
While Biden had become a sure bet to lose to Trump, Harris has the opportunity to regain support among independents, as well as help mobilize people to vote in the US’s non-compulsory voting system.
But as has been well documented, her tenure as vice president has not been popular, and Trump’s team believes it has a chance of beating her in the general election.
Many Australian politicians will be tempted to step in and suggest that she must defeat Trump and his risky agenda for change. That is certainly the view held privately by most Labor MPs.
But expressing such sentiments publicly would be a mistake in the context of the former president’s rising popularity, especially after the assassination attempt on his life.
If that were to happen and he won a second term, you can bet Trump would be cold-blooded toward Albanese’s government.
A leading indicator that Australian Labor politicians and bureaucrats will be instructed to avoid wading into the polarising US debate was on display last week when Kevin Rudd used his time in Washington to court Republicans, including Trump’s running mate JD Vance.
Just this morning, following Biden’s announcement, Labour MPs have already been given talking points for any media interviews they do, to help ensure everyone is “on the same page” with what they are saying about the shift in US policy.
Anthony Albanese and his team are expected to avoid offering opinions on the race between now and the US election in November.
The tumult of what’s happening in American politics might even be enough to convince a nervous prime minister to delay his plans to call a snap election, risking seeking a second term while global politics are so up in the air. Especially when you add in today’s Freshwater poll which puts Peter Dutton’s coalition ahead of Labor by 51-49 per cent in the two-party vote for the first time since the 2022 election.
But the strategy of delaying the Australian election until the new year must be weighed against the potential risks that a Trump return could pose to the economy. Last week, economics professor Richard Holden explained why he believes a Trump comeback could be an economic catastrophe for Australia.
Albo will not want that prediction to come true quickly, as it would put his economic management credentials at risk. The Coalition has long been closer to Republicans in Washington than Labor politicians.
However, if Harris finds a way to regain support and become the next US president, she will be a more comfortable choice for Australia’s centre-left government, whether we’re talking about climate change policy or the kind of social agenda Harris will pursue.
After weeks of uncertainty, it would be a bold move for Democrats to try to ignore Biden’s endorsement of Harris (pictured) and use the few weeks remaining before the Democratic convention to find another candidate.
The 45th President of the United States and First Lady Melania are seen disembarking from Air Force One in Palm Beach, Florida.
But the fact is that recent problems within the Democratic Party mean that Trump is still well positioned to return to the White House. So that prospect will be on the minds of policy experts within the Labor team as they consider how to navigate a second-term Trump presidency.
Preparing for the impact of Trump’s return on relations with China, the AUKUS deal and trade and tariffs with the United States are just some of the hot-button issues affected by who wins in November.
If the Australian general election is not held until after the US one, political strategists here will be watching closely to see how Trump’s populist rhetoric is received in the US mainstream, especially on issues such as immigration.
Peter Dutton has already shown his willingness to turn immigration policy into a contested terrain, just as it is in the United States. And Dutton’s strategy is to target the outer metropolitan seats currently held by Labor, and not just the marginal ones.
There could be parallels with the way American candidates are seeking to appeal to key central states.
Australia’s alliance with the United States enjoys bipartisan support, but within that framework it always becomes more controversial when the shape of Australia’s political system does not match the results of the American elections.
Donald Trump could exacerbate that divide, which is why the Albanese government’s main goal between now and the November presidential election will be to avoid entering into the debate whenever possible.