Could Victoria be about to hand Peter Dutton an unexpected election victory, shifting its support back to the Coalition for the first time since John Howard’s 1996 landslide win against Paul Keating?
The state Labor Party is in trouble, but Victorians will not have the chance to vent their anger at the state party for more than two years.
Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese hopes to retain most of the seats Labor needs to hold on to in Victoria to maintain a majority in government.
At the last federal election, Labor won 24 seats to the Coalition’s 11 in Victoria. The Liberals also lost the seat of Aston in a by-election shortly after.
But two years on, the national cost of living crisis, coupled with the fact that the Victorian state Labor government is on the brink of bankruptcy, has the Labor brand in the crosshairs in Melbourne and surrounding regions.
The reversal of political fortunes could be Dutton’s version of what Western Australia was for Labor at the 2022 federal election.
Anthony Albanese launched his campaign in the west, riding on the popularity of state Premier Mark McGowan and seizing his opportunity to almost double Labor’s seat share in the west, overtaking the Liberals for the first time since 1998.
Victoria could give Peter Dutton (pictured with his wife Kirilly) an unexpected election victory
If Dutton does manage to make a comeback in Victoria at the next election, it would represent a stunning reversal from expectations shortly after he took over as Liberal opposition leader.
Dutton was seen as political poison in Victoria: an unpopular figure unable to turn around the fortunes of the Liberal Party in a state once described as the Liberal Party’s “crown jewel” and the home of its founder, Robert Menzies.
A recent Redbridge poll shows three Labour-held seats too close to call for a winner (Chisholm, McEwen and Bruce), as well as handing Aston back to the Liberal Party.
The recent redistribution could also bring Dunkley (with a 2.7 per cent margin) into play, and Higgins’ seat, held by Labour, has now been abolished.
In the last federal election, Labor achieved a swing of just over 10 percent across Washington, tipping the balance in its favour for the first time in a quarter of a century.
While retaining those seats will be a challenge in itself for Labor, if a similar shift were to occur in Victoria that reversed the party’s political fortunes of the previous nearly 30 years, Labor would lose up to 10 seats.
In addition to those already mentioned, seats such as Corangamite (7.8 per cent), Hawke (7.6 per cent), Holt (7.1 per cent), Isaacs (9.5 per cent) and Gorton (10 per cent) could come into play.
Anthony Albanese (pictured) hopes to retain most of the seats Labor needs to hold on to in Victoria to maintain a majority in government.
Will Dutton try to launch his campaign in Victoria in the same way Albo launched his last one in WA?
Will we see Dutton spending more time in Victoria, campaigning alongside some of his local federal MPs such as Finance Minister Jane Hume, Home Affairs Minister James Paterson and Housing Minister Michael Sukkar?
All three portfolios are high-profile and will play an important role in the upcoming campaign.
In addition to the threats Labor faces from the Coalition in Victoria, several of its seats are under threat from the Greens, and the Liberals hope to regain one or more of the seats held by the Greens.
The same Redbridge poll mentioned above shows the Liberals with a narrow lead in Goldstein over Teal MP Zoe Daniel.
Howard almost succeeded in revering the Liberal Party’s poor showing in Victoria in the 2004 election against Labor leader Mark Latham. Labor narrowly won more seats in Victoria after that defeat, 19 seats compared to the Coalition’s 18.
Interest rates were the defining issue in that election, as they may well be this time, after 12 consecutive rate hikes since Labor took power at the federal level.
Latham has been pigeonholed as an economic risk, a perception that Albo and Treasurer Jim Chalmers are deftly matching with his performance so far in government.
Add to this the whole state-run stench of the Labor Party and it could be a powerful reason for voters to send a message against Labor in power, even if it is at federal rather than state level.
At the last federal election, Labor won 24 seats compared to just 11 for the Coalition in Victoria.
The fact that the state Liberal Party is mired in trouble could also play into Dutton’s hands. Voters may not feel comfortable protesting Labor at state level in the coming years unless the state party steps up its game.
At the federal level, however, Dutton has managed to unite his party following the 2022 election defeat and there has been little sign of disunity since.
Albo was proud to tell anyone who would listen that his WA strategy revolutionised the 2022 election campaign, winning seats in the west that few expected Labor to take from the Liberals.
Without that success, the Labour Party would not have been able to achieve a majority government.
Dutton could be looking to do the same with Labor in Victoria, which would represent a surprise victory for the Liberals in a state they have long been unable to win.
