Home US October jobs report shows slowest growth in 4 years in shock data days before presidential election

October jobs report shows slowest growth in 4 years in shock data days before presidential election

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October jobs report shows slowest growth in 4 years in shock data days before presidential election

Job creation last month slowed to its weakest pace since December 2020, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.

Employers are estimated to have added 12,000 jobs in October, well below September and well below estimates of a 100,000 job gain.

The ongoing Boeing strike and the devastating impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton had an impact on the numbers, the Labor Department said.

The report raised fears of weakness in the economy, just days before the presidential election.

However, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1 percent, in line with economists’ expectations.

Monthly average down

Following data revisions released on Friday, average job growth over the past three months has fallen to 104,000.

This is down from 189,000 the previous six months, according to the Labor Department.

Beyond the noise, the numbers still point to a “fundamentally slowing labor market,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. The New York Times.

Presidential elections on the horizon

The numbers come less than a week before the presidential election, with the economy at the forefront of voters’ minds.

October’s weak employment numbers “cast a murky shadow heading into next week,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. CNBC.

The report is the last major economic data to be released before the election.

NORTH LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 31: Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris, speaks during a "When we vote we win" Campaign rally at the Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada. With five days left until Election Day, Harris is campaigning in Arizona and Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Downward revisions compared to previous months

October’s weak jobs report also included downward revisions to data from previous months.

Job creation in August fell to 78,000, while the September figure fell to 223,000.

Together, the revisions reduced total job creation by 112,000.

Stock markets rise

Wall Street largely ignored pre-bell data, with stock market futures rising.

“Markets are rightly avoiding an overreaction,” Ballinger Group analyst Kyle Chapman told the New York Times.

The lower-than-expected jobs numbers raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again at its next meeting next week.

Investors now see a more than 99 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

FILE PHOTO: A Wall Street sign hangs in front of an American flag outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) ahead of the Federal Reserve announcement in New York City, US, on September 18 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo

Impact of strikes and storms

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report said the Boeing strike likely took away 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, which lost 46,000 jobs in total.

Some 33,000 union members have been on strike since September 13, which has been a serious blow to the aerospace manufacturer.

He also noted that the devastating hurricanes Helene and Milton, which hit large areas of the country last month, would have had an effect on employment figures.

However, he said “it is not possible to quantify the net effect” of the storms on total employment.

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