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In the second of a two-part series, Dalton Del Don reveals his fantasy football expectations for members of the 2024 NFL Draft class, with today’s focus on running backs (and a touted tight end). Go here for Part 1.
Runners
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
Benson can make a difference in fantasy as a rookie despite his modest draft capital. he forced hills Lost tackles per touch in 2022 since the statistics were recorded. He joins an Arizona offense that was a top-10 unit during the second half of last season before adding rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. There is little competition behind James Conner, who is 29 years old and coming off the second load highest work rate of his career. and he has averaged 3.6 missed games over the last five seasons.
Conner has never played a full season or surpassed 215 carries during any of his seven years in the NFL, and Benson may surpass him at this stage of their careers. The Cardinals quietly had the fourth-best EPA/rush last season, so Arizona The leader is in a great situation.. With a good combination of power and speed, Benson is a top-10 fantasy RB when he gets the chance to take over Arizona’s backfield.
Benson will require patience, but I’ll draft him as a top-25 fantasy RB.
Jonathan Brooks, Carolina Panthers
Streams would have been selected higher if he weren’t returning from ACL surgery, and might also require some patience from fantasy managers. Brooks is more talented than Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders and should have no problem supplanting both once he is fully healthy. However, the Panthers have no reason to pressure the rookie and Carolina is far from an ideal landing spot. Hopefully new coach Dave Canales will turn things around, but the Panthers had by far the fewest yards per play (5.1) in the NFL last season.
Carolina added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, but Bryce Young could still be a real problem. Still, Hubbard was the No. 9 fantasy over the final seven weeks of last season, so Brooks will have real value once he finally takes over the role. His ACL tear was clean and Brooks is on track to be cleared for training camp.
Carolina will limit his rookie upside, but Brooks can pass protection and will have a chance to be a workhorse over the second half of the season. He should be selected as a top 30 fantasy RB.
Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
Corum he is not an elite athlete and profiles similar to Kyren Williams. Sean McVay loves using a top running back, but the draft pick is another reason to avoid Williams at his high ADP. Williams was placed on the injured list midseason last year and then suffered a hand injury that required surgery during Los Angeles’ Wild Card loss. He also suffered a severely sprained ankle during the first play of his NFL career during a kickoff. It’s probably safe to say that Williams is at higher risk for injury. his struggles as a receiverso Corum will likely have a chance at some point.
Williams seems like an incredibly risky first-round fantasy pick given his profile, the number of injuries he’s suffered, and the addition of the rookie.
Meanwhile, Corum was incredibly productive in college, scoring a whopping 47 touchdowns in his final two years at Michigan. However, there are negative aspects, including some Stunningly low yards and missed tackles after contact numbers after suffering a meniscus tear. Furthermore, almost all of the touchdowns Corum scored entered the five yard line. Of course, that goal-line success could also lead to the rookie stealing Williams’ red zone job, which would be a fantasy disaster.
Corum’s limitations are less of a concern given that Williams was similarly the No. 2 fantasy running back (per game) in this system, trailing only Christian McCaffrey last season. The Rams got most yards per play when their offense was completely healthy last year, and Los Angeles produced the second-highest EPA/rush of the season.
Corum lands in a situation with a path to plenty of fantasy upside, so he should be the third rookie RB selected despite his underwhelming profile.
Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
Wright ran a 4.38 40 and landed in a Miami system that produced NFL highs in YPC (5.1) and rushing touchdowns (27). He is an athlete similar to Reggie Bush, just 10 pounds heavier, and Wright has more potential as a receiver than his college stats might suggest. Raheem Mostert will soon be 32 years old and surpassed 200 carries (219) for the first time in his career last season. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane might be the only player in the league who An injury risk as great as Mostert’s.
Wright only has fourth-round draft capital, but he’s an explosive running back in an excellent situation behind two of the league’s biggest injury risks. He’s my fourth rookie running back.
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
Lloyd is the favorite to become Green Bay’s RB2, as AJ Dillon has become one of the least productive running backs in the league. Newcomer Josh Jacobs He also had problems last seasonbut He faced the largest number of defenders in the area. forks ready to become the Packers’ leading running back. Lloyd committed a whopping 11 fumbles in 291 touches in his college career and is questionable in pass protection, making him a flawed prospect who needs to develop. But Lloyd also has Intriguing potential and can break tackles., and the Packers have one of the most exciting young offenses in the league. He is a top five rookie dynasty running back.
Jacobs essentially signed a one year contractso there is a path for Lloyd to become Green Bay’s leader in 2025 if the rookie impresses.
Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers
Guerendo ran the fastest time 40 (4.33) among runners this year and has second best relative athletic score among 1,745 RBs since 1987. That’s De’Von Achane speed but 30+ pounds heavier. DK Metcalf and Guerendo are the only two perspectives in the last 20 years weigh so much and run so fast.
Guerendo had limited college production, and the 49ers traded for an RB with an elite speed rating (Guerendo ranked first) before… just so they wouldn’t play an NFL snap. San Francisco also has a poor recent track record drafting mid-round running backs (Trey Sermon, Tyrion Davis-Price), so Guerendo isn’t a sure thing.
Still, this is an incredible athlete who was locked behind talent in college and could easily rise in the NFL with the help of Bobby Turner. The 49ers led the NFL in RB rushing yards last season, and Christian McCaffrey led the league in touchdowns, so Shanahan’s system is still the best for fantasy running backs. McCaffrey had 417 touches last year, and Elijah Mitchell (who is in the last year of his contract) has been The most injury-prone player in the league. since he entered the NFL.
Guerendo is one of the best late-round flyers in this year’s fantasy drafts.
Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers
Vidal landed on a Chargers team that selected LT Joe Alt over Malik Nabers and wants to run the ball under Jim Harbaugh. The chargers lost 87% of his RB rush attempts in 2023 in free agency, and Gus Edwards will soon turn 29 years old. Edwards could also see his YPC fall away from Lamar Jackson, and JK Dobbins is trying to come back from a torn Achilles tendon. Vidal is short but a good athlete who was productive in college, and Los Angeles seems to love the rookie. With so few weapons at receiver and Justin Herbert at QB, Vidal explosiveness will be a welcome addition.
The Chargers project to have one of the easiest schedules in the league and they have one of the thinnest running back rooms in the NFL, so Vidal has a real rookie fantasy.
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
Davis becomes a backup with rising fantasy in Buffalo. James Cook ranked in the top five in yards per touch (5.6) last season, but his fantasy value was limited thanks to just two carries inside the five-yard line after Week 4. Cook did not rank among the Top 20 among runners in red. zone touches and Davis projects to take over the goal line in 2024. Latavius Murray had the 12th RB with the most carries within the five last year even though Josh Allen stole 14 of them, so the rookie was able to reach double-digit touchdowns.
Cook will find it difficult to live up to his current RB14 Expert Consensus Rating in 0.5 PPR leagues and will likely continue to lose short touchdowns.
difficult ending
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Bowers is likely to top tight end prospect in college football history, but Las Vegas was certainly a tough place to land for his fantasy value. The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the league, a true alpha at wide receiver and I just drafted a tight end with a top-40 pick. last year. Bowers will be able to play indoors and hopefully Michael Mayer will do most of the blocking while Bowers sees plenty of action in the slot, but Vegas had the sixth-fewest yards per play last season; Gardner Minshew is unlikely to be a huge upgrade over Aidan O’Connell, if anything.
Bowers looks like a unicorn. able to make a immediate impact in any situation, but he’ll compete for the appearance with Davante Adams (who finished second in the league in targets and target percentage last season) for a bottom-five QB. The tight end position appears unusually strong heading into 2024, so it’s unlikely Bowers will star at the position right away like Sam LaPorta did in last year’s rookie class.
Still, Bowers should be selected as a top-12 fantasy tight end despite finding himself in a less-than-ideal situation in Las Vegas.