- Another poll shows a marginal shift among older voters, from Trump to Harris
Kamala Harris has two possible paths to the White House compared to Donald Trump’s one and would be the favorite to win if the election were held today, new polls show.
A victory in either the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) or the Sun Belt states (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina) would secure him the presidency, while Trump would have to win in both regions.
The prediction comes from the Washington Post polling average, which suggests the race has effectively turned around since Joe Biden was replaced by his vice president on the Democratic ticket.
Compared to July 21, the day President Biden dropped out of the race, Harris has gained two percentage points nationally, meaning she has a lead over her Republican rival so far.
Another recent poll from Outward Intelligence puts her even further ahead nationally, suggesting she would have a six-point lead over former President Trump in a hypothetical two-candidate race.
Kamala Harris has two possible paths to the White House, according to a Washington Post poll
Trump has been furious since Biden dropped out of the presidential race and passed the torch to Harris on July 21.
The move toward Harris could be attributed to an apparent shift among older voters away from their traditional loyalty to the Republican Party, according to a separate analysis.
Younger voters have leaned toward Harris since Biden stepped back, with those under 30 leaning toward her by nine points, according to Emerson College Polling.
But perhaps most strikingly, voters over 70 support Harris over Trump by 51 percent to 48 percent, the poll released Thursday shows.
Despite positive statistics for Harris’ campaign ahead of next week’s Democratic National Convention, all eyes remain on predictions for the all-important Electoral College.
According to the Washington Post model, Harris would still be behind Trump in the electoral college count if the election were held today and every state voted as its polling average currently suggests.
However, the newspaper’s poll also suggests Harris is more competitive in more states that could add up to 270 votes, the number needed for an electoral college victory.
The vice president has been riding a wave of growing enthusiasm, bolstered by new government figures this week showing inflation cooling.
More Americans now trust Harris to handle the economy than her Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a new University of Michigan poll, marking the first time this election cycle that the former president has fallen behind on that issue.
Trump has been furious since Biden dropped out of the presidential race and passed the torch to Harris, and Republicans have been pleading with the former president to focus on policy and drop his personal attacks on his new opponent.
But Trump has been unable to stay on message, complaining about the size of Harris’s crowd, attacking her mixed racial heritage and calling the former California attorney general stupid.
Former President Donald Trump at a campaign event in Asheville, North Carolina, on August 14, 2024
Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group from July 26 to August 2
In a rambling speech in North Carolina that was meant to focus on his own economic message, Trump devoted much of his attention to personal insults and even said he was “not sure” the economy was the “most important issue” in the election.
As both Trump and Harris tour the crucial swing state this week, a new poll shows the Democratic nominee leading in what has so far been an extremely tight race.
It appears to be the first poll to give the vice president a slim lead in the state the former Republican president won in 2016 and 2020.
The Cook Political Report poll showed the candidates in a statistical tie with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent among likely voters in the Tar Heel State with less than three months to go before the election.
Other recent polls in North Carolina showed Trump leading in the state, but multiple polls now show Harris making gains in battleground states.