Joe Biden is on track to narrowly win the US presidential election, according to a shocking poll.
The US president is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in both the electoral college and the popular vote, but the campaign is “on a knife’s edge”, according to the poll.
The poll suggests Biden will win 287 electoral college votes to his predecessor’s 251 when the country votes later this year.
The Stack Data Strategy poll, shared with the Mail, shows Biden is on track to win, despite Trump being the bookmakers’ favourite.
It uses an MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) model that has been a more reliable predictor of electoral results in recent years.
Joe Biden is on track to narrowly win the US presidential election, according to shocking poll
The US president is slightly ahead of Donald Trump (pictured) in both the electoral college and the popular vote, but the campaign is “on a knife’s edge”, according to the poll.
The poll suggests Biden will win 287 electoral college votes to his predecessor’s 251 when the country votes later this year.
Biden announced his reelection bid earlier this year and garnered enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination. Trump will become the Republican nominee when the nominations are made official.
In the presidential vote on Nov. 5, the two men will compete for electoral college votes, which are allocated to each state based on its population. They need 270 votes to win.
The election is likely to come down to a number of key battleground states. Polls show that although Biden is ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it is less than half a point. If Trump could flip Pennsylvania on his own, he would win the election.
Trump’s path to victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 ran through the Midwest, with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin being key states.
Biden flipped many of these states in 2020, narrowly carrying Arizona and Georgia. As things stand, Trump will only set Georgia back.
Joe Bedell, chief strategist at Stack Data, said: “The 2024 election cycle is truly on a knife edge.
‘According to our in-depth research, President Biden is currently on track to hold on to the White House. But this is only by a very narrow margin: just one percentage point in some states.
US President Joe Biden speaks at the North American Construction Unions 2024 Legislative Conference in Washington on April 24.
Union members wear Biden-Harris campaign t-shirts and wave signs before U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the North American Construction Unions 2024 Legislative Conference.
“The Midwestern states that carried Donald Trump to victory in 2016 are sticking with Biden for now, but in practice it’s a toss-up in many of these key battlegrounds: the stakes are high and every vote will count.
‘The race for Congress is just as tight, as Republicans are currently set to take back the Senate and retain control of the House. “This is going to be a truly exciting contest.”
A poll conducted by Stack Data Strategy last November predicted that Trump would win the electoral college despite Biden winning the popular vote. Biden is now slightly ahead on both.
Data shows that Biden has since made steady gains across multiple demographic groups, especially older, white, rural, suburban, and less-educated groups.
He continues to struggle with 18- to 24-year-olds, currently winning just 53 percent of his age group despite winning 65 percent of this group in 2020, according to exit polls.
Biden is also failing to make progress with Democratic grassroots groups such as African Americans, Hispanics and Asians, the research indicates.
Immigration, inflation and crime are the top three issues for voters, and 44 percent cited immigration and border security as one of the most important areas for them. Inflation and rising fuel prices followed closely, at 42 percent. Crime and public safety, at 30 percent, were slightly ahead of abortion at 29 percent.
The poll also asked respondents who they would like to see as vice president of both candidates, and Trump voters indicated Ron DeSantis, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. Biden voters opted for Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama and Mrs. Clinton.
This study also shows that Republicans are on track to win both the Senate and the House by narrow margins.
Stack Data Strategy interviewed 7,793 registered US voters online between March 27 and April 10.