The shame was invented in England on February 14, 1891. It was the last minute of the FA Cup quarter-final between Notts County and Stoke City when a County defender stopped a shot on the line with his hand. Stoke were awarded a free kick just inches from the goal line and the goalkeeper, as was perfectly legal at the time, stood right in front of the ball. The Stoke player, unable to do anything other than kick him directly, saw his shot blocked in ridiculous circumstances.
in a later meeting At the board of directors of the International Football Association in Glasgow on 2 June 1891, the Irish FA suggested a motion for a new penalty kick rule. The board approved it and decades of anguish and joy were born. Something like. The original rule stated that players could take a penalty “from any point 12 meters from the goal line” and the goalkeeper could advance at least 6 meters to save it. But, over time, that has been modified and refined into what we know and love/hate today.
The probability of a penalty being called is around 70 percent. In the 2022 World Cup, 22 of the 29 penalties awarded in the game were scored (76 percent). Until the start of this year’s Euro Cup, 88 penalties had been scored in the competition, of which 62 (70 percent). The penalty shootout (introduced at Euro 1976 and World Cup 1978) also has roughly the same conversion rate. In World Cup penalty shootouts, 222 of 320 penalties have been successful (69 percent). In the Euro penalty shootout, the conversion rate is slightly higher: 178 of 232 (77 percent).
But why do we have to take penalties from 12 meters? Simple: that’s what the FA decided in 1891. And it’s probably never changed, because scoring seven out of 10 penalties offers a good mix of risk, reward and drama.
Move the ball closer or farther and the odds will start to lean too much one way or the other. As John Wesson points out in The science of footballTaking air resistance into account, a perfectly aimed “penalty” at 80 mph into the top corner of the goal could, in theory, beat a goalkeeper from 35 yards. Move 10 yards or closer to the goal and the probability of scoring steadily increases. At 3 yards, it’s almost 100 percent.
Seemingly by chance, 12 yards is pretty much the sweet spot: Enough penalties are applied to reward skill and good placement, and enough penalties are avoided to reward good guesswork, research, and goalie agility. Of the 88 Euro penalties that were awarded before the 2024 tournament, only 18 were saved. Englishman Jordan Pickford is a goalkeeper who has used the past behavior of penalty takers and their preferred goal-scoring positions to predict their future choices, keeping this data in his bottle for reference.
For a striker, relying on physics to score the perfect penalty has to do with two things: speed and direction. At 80 mph, a goalie has about a third of a second to make a stop. Since this is similar to his reaction time, the only chance for him to save himself is to correctly guess where he is going. And that’s where placement comes into play. Research conducted by the University of Bath in 2012 found a “diving envelope” which any goalkeeper can cover if he pushes in any direction with maximum force. The probability of scoring within the diving envelope is 50 percent. The probability of scoring outside the dive zone is 80 percent.