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Welcome to the first year of the team of 12 College football playoffs.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down the playoff-bound teams as the season approaches. The top five conference champions as ranked by the CFP selection committee will make the playoffs, and the rest of the field will consist of seven teams that will make the at-large round. Who will hoist the national championship trophy on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: issues 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan
No. 7 Notre Dame
Record 2023: 10-3
Last season in 100 words
Marcus Freeman’s second season at Notre Dame was much better than his first, though the Irish improved by just one win. There was no 0-2 start or bad losses to Stanford or Marshall. A late loss to Ohio State in Week 5 stung, but it was a much different game than the 11-point loss in 2022.
The Irish also defeated nearly every opponent they faced. Notre Dame’s closest win was a 21-14 victory at Duke following the Ohio State game. All other wins were by three points or more and the season culminated with a 40-8 blowout win over Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.
Why Notre Dame can make the playoffs
The Fighting Irish brought back a ton of talent, added a solid QB through the transfer portal for the second straight season and have a very manageable schedule. That’s an excellent recipe for a playoff appearance.
Notre Dame, however, is not eligible to earn a bye into the first round of the playoffs. Since the top four seeds in the 12-team playoff face the conference champions, the Irish can only earn one spot as an at-large team, and the highest seed Notre Dame can be ranked is No. 5.
That accounting aside, we’ll start with a defense that was excellent in 2023 and returns eight starters. Notre Dame allowed fewer than 16 points per game last season and gave up just 4.4 yards per play. Only six teams had more than 300 yards against the Irish.
Nearly the entire defensive line returns, including defensive tackles Howard Cross and Rylie Mills. The secondary will be anchored by All-American Xavier Watts, who had 52 tackles and seven interceptions in 2023. Watts will join Northwestern transfer Rod Heard at safety in what could be the best safety duo in college football.
The offensive line needs to replace three starters, including fifth-overall draft pick Joe Alt, and the task might have gotten a little tougher during preseason practice. Charles Jagusah started in place of Alt in the Sun Bowl, but suffered a torn pectoral muscle earlier this month and is out for the season.
The line helped pave the way for Audric Estime to rush for more than 1,300 yards a season ago and Estime needs to be replaced as well. RBs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will likely have bigger roles in 2024 after each averaged more than five yards per carry last season.
Riley Leonard is the latest quarterback to transfer from Notre Dame’s ACC roster after the experience with Sam Hartman in 2023. Leonard will have a group of receivers with high potential in Mitchell Evans, Jordan Faison and Jayden Thomas. They all averaged over 14 yards per reception in 2023. Don’t forget about Notre Dame’s passing offense this season.
Key player
Leonard arrives from Duke after an injury-plagued 2023 season. He suffered an ankle injury near the end of the Irish’s win last season and appeared in just two games in October. In the seven games he played in 2023, his stats dropped precipitously compared to 2022.
Notre Dame hopes a fully healthy Leonard will look a lot more like the quarterback he was in 2022. Two seasons ago, Leonard completed 64% of his passes for 2,967 yards and 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He also rushed for 699 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The matchup between Leonard and new offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock will be fascinating. Denbrock was LSU’s offensive coordinator in 2023 when Jayden Daniels won the Heisman Trophy and wide receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas were drafted in the first round.
The biggest game
Notre Dame’s schedule looks so good that the Irish could be 7-1 or even 8-0 before the Seminoles visit in November. The Irish are slight favorites heading into the season opener at Texas A&M and will likely be favored in each of their next seven games.
After Florida State, the only other game that could trip up Notre Dame is a visit to USC in the final week of the season. A 10-2 or better season is on the line, and if that happens, Notre Dame will host a first-round College Football Playoff game.