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It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
With this season’s playoffs expanding to 12 teams, we will lay out the projected playoff field each week as the season progresses. Yes, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until November 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without the CFP rankings as a guide, we will rely primarily on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. CFP rankings and the AP poll tend to have far more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after a weekend of monumental upsets.
Breaks in the first round
1. Texas (5-0, projected SEC champion)
The Longhorns regained the top spot in the AP Top 25 without having to do anything in Week 6. Thanks to Alabama’s loss at Vanderbilt, Texas moved up from the No. 2 spot. We assumed the vote between Texas and Ohio State would be close, but it wasn’t. The Longhorns play in Dallas on Saturday in their annual rivalry game with No. 19 Oklahoma.
2. Ohio State (5-0, projected Big Ten champion)
Ohio State earned a convincing victory over Iowa on Saturday. The Hawkeyes did not score until the reserves came on for the Buckeyes in the second half. Jeremiah Smith fumbled, but also had another one-handed touchdown catch, as a very good Iowa defense was still no match for the Ohio State offense. The Buckeyes travel to Oregon in Week 7 for a matchup between the top three teams in the week’s game.
3. Miami (6-0, projected ACC champion)
The Hurricanes needed a big comeback to stay undefeated. Cal led 35-10 in the second half before Miami came back to lead 39-38 with less than 30 seconds left. Hurricanes need to stop living so dangerously; They will surely lose a game if they continue to need second-half comebacks like they have over the past two weeks.
4. Iowa State (5-0, projected Big 12 champion)
The Cyclones pulled away from Baylor on Saturday night with a 43-21 home win. Jaylon Jackson and Carson Hansen combined to rush 30 times for 204 yards in the win, while Jayden Higgins had eight receptions for 116 yards. ISU has a three-headed rushing attack with Jackson, Hansen and Abu Sama III, and Higgins and Jaylin Noel have caught 57 of Rocco Becht’s 87 completions. Iowa State has a good test in Week 7 against a West Virginia team that won easily at Oklahoma State.
First round games
No. 12 Boise State (4-1, projected MWC champion) vs. No. 5 Oregon (5-0, overall)
Nobody can stop Ashton Jeanty. The Boise State RB was at it again in the middle against Utah State. Jeanty had 13 carries for 186 yards and three touchdowns before watching the rest of the game from the sideline. He had 25 carries for 192 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon when the two teams met in Week 2. The Ducks would host again in this rematch, but Oregon likely won’t be ranked No. 5 after playing Ohio State this week . .
No. 11 Clemson (4-1, overall) at No. 6 Penn State (5-0, overall)
The Tigers are in the playoff picture for the first time all season, as they continue to win convincingly following their Week 1 loss to Georgia. Clemson defeated Florida State 29-13 in Week 6 as Phil Mafah rushed 25 times for 154 yards. The Tigers have been much, much better on offense since that Georgia game, as Cade Klubnik continues to play like one of the best quarterbacks in college football. Penn State easily beat UCLA 27-11 in Week 6 and heads to USC in Week 7 to face a Trojans team that lost in Minnesota.
No. 10 Ole Miss (4-1, overall) at No. 7 Georgia (4-1, overall)
If these two matchups were possible at the end of the season, we would be fascinated to see if the College Football Playoff selection committee would alternate rankings and see if rematches could be avoided. Ole Miss will host Georgia in November, the Bulldogs have already played Alabama, the Tide will head to Tennessee in Week 8 and the Vols will go to Athens later this season. If clashes are inevitable, they will certainly be intriguing. Ole Miss had no trouble against South Carolina in Week 6, while Georgia had a relatively dull win against Auburn.
No. 9 Tennessee (4-1, overall) at No. 8 Alabama (4-1, overall)
Both teams enter Week 7 off of upset losses after the Vols lost at Arkansas and Alabama was upset by Vanderbilt. Tennessee and Alabama are perfect examples of how tough life in the 16-team SEC will be for everyone. It will be quite an accomplishment if anyone makes it through the conference undefeated, and the only teams left undefeated in the conference are Texas A&M (3-0), Texas (1-0) and LSU (1-0).
