Anyone who saw Leeds United dismantle Norwich City 4-0 in the Championship play-off semi-final would consider them in perfect shape for football’s richest match at Wembley, with a £200m jackpot up for grabs.
Unfortunately for manager Daniel Farke, his players will have to conquer history and also very uncomfortable opponents in Southampton in Sunday’s final.
Those 35,000 Leeds fans marching together from Yorkshire to the capital will know this better than anyone.
Even as they shout songs praising star players Crysencio Summerville and Wilfried Gnonto, they will be acutely aware of the curse that has plagued Leeds throughout English play-off history.
If Leeds miss out again, they will join MK Dons as the only club to have participated in six campaigns and been successful in none of them.
Leeds are arguably in perfect shape for football’s biggest game at Wembley on Sunday
Daniel Farke will seek to take his team to the Premier League, but must overcome the voodoo of Wembley
35,000 Leeds fans will make the trip from Yorkshire to the capital aware of the club’s unwanted record
The list of clubs that have beaten Leeds in the past is not the most intimidating in English football: Charlton Athletic, Watford, Doncaster Rovers, Millwall and Derby County.
In fact, it’s a bit of a shame for a proud club who won league championships under Don Revie and Howard Wilkinson, and who also have a European Cup final and a Champions League semi-final on their CV.
They also don’t seem demanding when it comes to self-destruction. They lost their first play-off final at St Andrew’s, their second at Cardiff’s Millennium Stadium and their third at Wembley. More recently, they lost twice at the semi-final stage on their own ground at Elland Road.
No wonder Simon Rix, lifelong fan, bassist for Leeds rock gods Kaiser Chiefs and co-host of the club’s podcast Don’t Go to Bed Yet, sounded almost pleading when he suggested: “Maybe Farke be the man who breaks voodoo.”
Maybe Farke is the man. But after 10 months in office, he is aware of the need to separate the anxiety that fans feel so that it does not impact his players.
“Throughout the season everyone has told me: ‘You can’t trust the play-offs because we never win,'” he says.
“I didn’t know about this record when I joined, but it means we could become the first team in this club’s history to win promotion this way.” It’s an opportunity.
“I’m a pessimist by nature, but there have been times this season when I’ve needed to lead by example and stay calm.
‘You have to act a little to lead such an emotional club. The fans believe that the world has ended after a defeat and dream of the Champions League after a victory.
‘I love that and the fire burns in me too. But I have to make sure I control it.’
The Whites lost in the 1987 play-off final, the first of the format, against Charlton
In their next play-off campaign, almost 20 years later, they were comprehensively beaten by Watford in 2006 (pictured).
In 2008, they lost the League One play-off final after overcoming a 15-point penalty for entering administration.
A year later, Jermaine Beckford (not pictured) missed a penalty as Leeds lost on aggregate to Millwall.
The common themes throughout the Leeds spell are a heavy burden of expectations combined with a lack of luck.
The first play-offs took place in 1987. In the original format, the final was played over two legs between Charlton, who had finished 19th in the old First Division, and Leeds, who were fifth in the Second Division.
After the tie finished 1-1 on aggregate, the decider was set for Birmingham City’s St Andrew’s. Leeds led until seven minutes from the end of extra time, when defender Peter Shirtliff beat them with two headers.
‘He knew “Camisas” and he had never scored twice in a game in his life. It was devastating because we were so close,” recalls Mervyn Day, the Leeds goalkeeper that night. By Leeds’ next play-off fixture in 2006, the club had experienced huge ups and downs culminating in relegation and financial crisis after chairman Peter Ridsdale had “chased the dream”.
It was notable that they reached the Championship play-off final under Kevin Blackwell two years after relegation, but that didn’t stop the perception that all Leeds had to do was turn up to win.
‘People in football knew otherwise. The club had changed,” explains Blackwell. ‘We had sold Mark Viduka, James Milner, Robbo (Paul Robinson) and Smithy (Alan Smith). Once we had Aston Martins and Range Rovers in the car park, the new players arrived driving Fords. Focus.
‘Our team was really on par with Watford, but everyone still saw us as the big team. As a manager, you carry the weight on your shoulders.’
It was not the first nor the last time that luck did not favor the whites.
“We started well and Shaun Derry shot from a corner,” Blackwell recalls. ‘Ashley Young turned her back, the ball hit her leg and went for a corner.
“If I had gone in, you don’t know what would have happened.”
Marcelo Bielsa’s side fell short against Derby County in the Championship play-off semi-final five years ago
2006 finals coach Kevin Blackwell (left) remembers the expectations his team faced.
Leeds lost 3-0 and Blackwell was sacked by Ken Bates three games into the following season. Things deteriorated further when Leeds were relegated to League One and received a 15-point penalty for entering administration.
Miraculously, Gary McAllister’s team reached the play-offs in 2008, when their luck once again ran out. Big favorites against their Yorkshire rival, Doncaster, they succumbed 1-0 in the final at Wembley.
“We feel very disadvantaged because without the points deduction we would have been automatically promoted,” midfielder Jonathan Douglas said.
Play-off appearances have been few and far between since then, but with the same result.
In 2009, Leeds squandered a chance to return to the Championship when Millwall beat them 2-1 on aggregate in the semi-final and Jermaine Beckford missed a penalty.
A decade later, the same story was repeated, when Frank Lampard’s derby came back from 2-0 down to win the semi-final 4-3 against Marcelo Bielsa’s team.
On both occasions, Leeds were automatically promoted the following season. He could provide comfort to Farke should the worst happen again, but he won’t want to rely on that given the ambitions of the 49ers’ owners, whose investors include Will Ferrell and Russell Crowe. Blackwell believes this is the right time to banish history.
Blackwell suggests now is the right time to put the story to rest and believes his former team can beat Southampton.
“The fans may be worried about the results of past play-offs, but the players beat Norwich,” he says.
“If that Leeds show up, I think they have enough to beat Southampton.”
Farke hopes the match will not be decided by a moment of misfortune.
“Football is the only sport in which the best team can lose because a goal can be crucial,” he adds.
But it is not allowed to pray beforehand for luck. You have to try to earn it.
“A play-off final is not a normal league match. You won’t be able to fix any errors next week.
