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The Pac-12 is back.
Well, almost.
The “Conference of Champions” is on the way to rebuilding, starting with the Thursday’s acquisition of four Mountain West schools:Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State will begin play in the new league in the fall of 2026.
That brings Pac-12 Commissioner Teresa Gould’s membership to six, with Oregon State and Washington State. It needs at least two more additions to reach the NCAA’s minimum threshold to qualify as an FBS conference, and it has just a few months to do so. The Pac-12 must reach eight members by July 2026, the end of the NCAA’s two-year grace period that allows a league to reestablish itself.
That seems like a long time, but in a world where such big, expensive moves happen, it’s not. The Pac-12 would prefer to have all of its members on board during negotiations for a new television deal, something they’d probably like to get done sooner rather than later. Any television network would prefer to know what they’re buying before they buy it.
In its statement Thursday announcing the new additions, the Pac-12 provided criteria for additional new members. But as is often the case, brand power, on-field success and television markets will weigh in more than anything else. That said, there are other factors to consider, such as the total number of members. You don’t want to spread yourself too thin and accept programs that don’t provide enough value.
Remember that television contracts are the main source of income for athletic departments. You must distribute the television money, often evenly, among your members. With each new member, the total amount decreases.
There’s something else to consider: exit fees and penalties for potential new members. These can be costly, and despite the narrative that the Pac-12 has endless money to pay for all these transactions, it doesn’t. Yes, the conference has more than $100 million in new revenue thanks to bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA tournament units, but it’s using a lot of those funds for operational purposes.
But enough of all this. Who else could or would the Pac-12 invite? The league wants to be known as the “best of the rest” outside of the four most powerful leagues. Who would agree to make the switch? And what is the ripple effect on the other G5 conferences and college sports in general?
ACC and Big 12
The Pac-12’s first choice wasn’t to rebuild. It was a good choice and one they were comfortable with, but it certainly wasn’t the priority. Oregon State and Washington State’s top choice was the same as every other school looking for a home after Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten: They wanted to join a powerful, established conference.
The Big 12 and ACC proposals went nowhere. They showed little to no interest, as they did last fall when the leagues chose Colorado, Utah, Arizona State and Arizona (Big 12), and Stanford and Cal (ACC).
There were hopes, expressed even publicly at times, that a significant realignment event in the ACC — FSU, Clemson and others leaving — would set off a domino effect that could benefit the Pac-12’s future. Perhaps they could serve as replacements and form a West Coast wing of the ACC with Stanford and Cal? Or perhaps the Cardinal and Bears would be willing, in an ACC left in disarray, to join them in their rebuilding quest?
Neither of these things has happened.
That leaves them here, rebuilding with the addition of Mountain West schools. And before you ask, Stanford and Cal have signed the ACC entitlement grant, which ties them to the league through 2036, as the current agreement is written (this isn’t new information and was reported last fall when the two programs joined the conference).
For now, as the ACC agreement stands, they are not candidates for a Pac-12 rebuild. But, someday, if the ACC starts losing members, could they be? Sure.
For now, that’s not the case, and it would likely take a catastrophic event to convince the two to turn down millions each in ACC television revenue to return to the Pac-12. While they aren’t getting full shares of the ACC yet, they will eventually get them, and those figures are expected to be significantly larger than the Pac-12’s TV value (up to triple the figures).
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American Athletic
If the Pac-12’s next preferred expansion targets were in the Mountain West, they likely would have been chosen this week.
They didn’t, suggesting they may look to Eastern applicants first. That includes a number of programs, many of them now members of the American Athletic Conference, for years the top Group of Five league in college athletics.
The AAC boasts the most attractive members from a TV market, brand value and on-field success standpoint, including Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas, Rice and even one in Florida (South Florida). The Texas schools would make good travel partners for each other. The same goes for Tulane and Rice, two top-ranked academic institutions that are in close proximity (though Rice is a tough sell).
If given the chance (not everyone will be interested in the Pac-12, this is speculative), these schools must decide whether moving to a conference on the other side of the country, in a completely different region and with a different cultural fit, is worth the Pac-12’s brand and television value.
The problem: We don’t really know its television value, but the Pac-12 estimates that it is higher than the best agreement of the Group of Five, which is the American one, which distributes between its original members around 8 to 10 million dollars annually.
If the Pac-12 costs $10 million to $12 million per school, is it worth moving across the country? And $15 million? That last number seems high, but who knows.
Don’t expect new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti to be anything less than proactive. According to those familiar with his thinking, Pernetti is interested in moving forward with Mountain West programs such as Air Force. Pernetti already has Army and Navy in his conference. Air Force is a sensible and attractive addition, and the AAC could offer more in distribution than the Mountain West, which costs about $5 million to $6 million.
But the American league isn’t the only one with teams of interest to the Pac-12. The Sun Belt features Texas State, an up-and-coming athletic department with a thriving football program, a large student body and a location just outside the bustling Austin metropolitan area.
Something to keep in mind with all of this: The Pac-12 lost its designation as an autonomous/power conference, a moniker that gave it more voting privileges within NCAA governance and more revenue in the CFP’s distribution model.
While they are unlikely to regain their status, there is a “look back” clause in the CFP contract after the 2027 playoffs that can be triggered to re-evaluate revenue sharing. The Pac-12, if stable enough and with enough brands, could make an argument for more CFP money.
West Mountain
What if the Pac-12 gets hampered in the East?
This leaves them with little choice but to turn their attention back to the Mountain West members.
Many in college athletics expressed surprise that UNLV was not included in the initial phase of Pac-12 expansion. Located in a major city and with a football program on the way, the potential is there.
Politics are at play, though. According to those familiar with the discussions, separating the two (the University of Nevada and UNLV) is a hurdle. It doesn’t mean it can’t be done. And, perhaps at a later date, they could eventually move together into the Pac-12. Or is the hurdle already cleared and UNLV is moving alone?
It’s unclear how much Pac-12 interest there is in other Mountain West programs, and again, there’s a reason they probably weren’t invited in Phase 1.
But the question remains: What does the Mountain West do?
Commissioner Gloria Nevarez isn’t sitting on her hands. In fact, the league has been vetting potential members, dating back to last year when San Diego State and Boise State were considering joining the old Pac-12.
New Mexico State, new to Conference USA, makes geographic sense. So does UTEP, also in CUSA. Both programs would likely see a doubling of annual distribution. Could they even get a signing bonus? The Mountain West is entitled to up to $110 million in exit money and penalties from the four departing members and the Pac-12.
Tarleton State, an up-and-coming FCS program with plenty of money and potential, is also a possible option. What about FCS teams like North Dakota State, South Dakota, Montana State and Montana?
Note that the NCAA recently increased the entrance fee for those moving from FCS to FBS to a whopping $5 million.
Basketball schools
Back to the Pac-12.
There are plenty of West Coast basketball brands that could prove attractive to any new Pac-12 conference. The easiest is Gonzaga, a program with a storied basketball tradition that routinely advances to the Sweet 16 and has made two trips to the Final Four since 2017.
Power conferences have long flirted with the Zags, which don’t offer football. The latest foray came via the Big 12, which last year engaged in serious deliberations with the school before deciding not to bring it on board.
Gonzaga’s geographic location also makes sense, as it’s just an hour’s drive north of Washington State’s campus. There are more programs out west that offer basketball success. Saint Mary’s, for example, is located in Moraga, California.
But the Pac-12 doesn’t want to grow too much because that dilutes revenue distribution for other programs.
And so the quest to rebuild the Pac-12 continues. It will almost certainly move east first, then west, and then… well, who knows.
Washington State president Kirk Schulz, a key leader in the rebuilding effort, suggested to Yahoo Sports in an interview earlier this week that more moves are on the way.
“Five years from now, when these grants run out, there will likely be more changes again. How do I prepare Washington State to have options in the future?”