Dunkley by-election: Voting is underway in crucial poll as Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton watch closely to sense the nation’s mood

Polls have opened in the seat of Dunkley for a by-election that is expected to show how Australians feel just a year before the next federal election.

Labor holds the seat in Melbourne’s southeastern suburbs with a margin of 6.3 per cent, but both major parties are downplaying expectations.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has spoken of there usually being a swing of “around seven per cent” against governments in by-elections, while Liberal leader Peter Dutton has said it would be difficult for the opposition to win the seat.

The by-election will not change the government (Labour has 77 seats in the 151-seat parliament, while the coalition has 55), but the results will be closely watched when counting begins when polls close at 6pm .

Some 22,150 people have already voted early, while 21,900 have applied to vote by mail, the Australian Electoral Commission said.

Those who have not voted have from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. to cast their vote in one of the 32 voting booths in the electorate.

‘It’s a big margin. But look, if there was a swing against the government of around three (per cent), then I think it’s a terrible result for Anthony Albanese,” Dutton told reporters.

Although Dunkley’s 113,000 voters are those who will vote on Saturday, the seat is representative of more than a dozen other seats across the country that will decide the 2025 general election.

As such, it will be a test of the government’s policies to address the cost of living crisis and its credibility after Albanese broke an election promise to keep the Morrison government-era stage 3 tax cuts as legislated. .

The government has taken every opportunity to promote how its renewed stage 3 tax cuts, which were approved by parliament on Tuesday and come into effect on July 1, would help more people than the Coalition’s legislated plan, which had promised on numerous occasions not to change.

The opposition has focused on the government’s credibility and how it is not doing enough to address the issues affecting Central Australia.

The candidates

The by-election was sparked by the death of popular MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year.

There are eight candidates on the ballot, but it will be a contest between the ALP and the Liberals.

The Labor candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself.

The Liberals are counting on long-time Frankston Mayor Nathan Conroy.

The by-election has been sparked by the death of popular Labor MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year.

The Labor candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself. Liberals are counting on long-time Frankston Mayor Nathan Conroy

Albanese said the fight to retain Labour’s 6.3 per cent margin over the electorate would be “tough”, but was adamant that Belyea would emerge popular with suburban voters.

‘One of the differences between Jodie Belyea and the other candidates in this by-election is that she will be a voice in the government. Someone who can do things as a voice in my government,” she told reporters.

“Not just being another guy, sitting behind everyone else… opposing everything, being negative about everything and running scare campaigns.”

Dutton tempered expectations of a Liberal victory after early polls showed his party holding a narrow lead in the days before the vote.

‘It’s a big margin. But look, if there was a swing against the government of around three (per cent), then I think it’s a terrible result for Anthony Albanese,” Dutton told reporters.

‘The limits have changed since a few years ago, when we held the position. So he has obviously crossed into Labor territory.

“But the fact is that Nathan has done a great job in his local community and I think people will vote for him in large numbers.”