A staggering number of voters think the United States is on the wrong path, a new Reuters-Ipsos poll found two weeks before the election.
The poll also found that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied. Harris got 46% of the vote to Trump’s 43%, but the numbers are within the margin of error.
More worrying is that the survey shows voters They are more pessimistic than ever about the state of the economy and immigration, and favor Trump’s approaches to solving both problems.
About 70% of registered voters in the survey said their cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy was headed in the wrong direction and 65% said the same of immigration policy.
When asked which candidate had the best approach on these issues, Trump led on the economy (46% to 38%) and on immigration 48% to 35%.
Kamala Harris on the campaign trail in Wisconsin
Immigration also ranked first when respondents were asked what the next president should focus most on in his first 100 days in office. About 35% chose immigration, 11% cited income inequality, and 10% cited health care and taxes.
The poll found that voters cited the economy and immigration, along with threats to democracy, as the country’s most important issues.
Trump, however, fared poorly on the question of which candidate was best at addressing political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35%.
Harris also led on abortion policy and health care policy.
Additionally, nine in ten (88%) voters say they are concerned about voter fraud.
Harris’ lead over Trump may not be enough to win the election even if it holds until November 5.
National polls, including Reuters/Ipsos polls, give important signals about electorate views, but state-by-state Electoral College results determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive.
Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, triumphing in the Electoral College even though he won the national popular vote by 2 points.
Polls have shown Harris and Trump neck and neck in those battleground states.
The poll gave signs that voters, particularly Democrats, may be more enthusiastic about this year’s election than they were before the November 2020 presidential election, when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump.
About 79% of registered voters in the survey – including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans – said they were “completely certain” they would vote in the presidential election.
The share of respondents who were sure to vote rose from 74% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 23-27, 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they were sure to vote. vote.
The new poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Donald Trump on the electoral campaign in Florida
Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his re-election effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. At the time, Trump was widely seen as the front-runner, in part because of his perceived strength in the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has eased in recent months.
Given the close result, the candidates’ efforts to ensure that their supporters actually vote will likely be key in determining the winner.
Only two-thirds of American adults voted in the November 2020 election, which was the highest turnout in more than a century, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center.
About a third of registered voters are Democrats and a third are Republicans, and the rest are independents or favor third parties, according to a Pew Research estimate.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 American adults nationwide online, including 3,481 registered voters. Some 3,307 respondents were considered more likely to go to the polls on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris had a 3 percentage point lead over Trump, 48% to 45%.