Emmanuel Macron is risking not only his own career but also the stability of all of Europe on this desperate roll of the dice. Faced with the rise of the far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, he has called early elections.
Her Renaissance party received less than half the votes: 15 percent of the turnout in France, compared to Le Pen’s 32 percent.
This is an even worse deficit than the Conservatives currently show against Labor in UK opinion polls. Many pundits thought Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was reckless to the point of stupidity when he announced an election in July, rather than waiting until the autumn. Macron’s decision makes Sunak look like a model of caution.
Perhaps the French president figures he could repeat the astute success of his predecessor, François Mitterrand, who allowed Jacques Chirac’s right-wing government to take power at a crucial moment in the late 1980s. Chirac failed in the job and Mitterrand was able to present himself as the savior of the nation when the electorate backed him in a subsequent election.
But many historians are more likely to remember Edward Heath’s ill-fated challenge to UK voters in 1974 when, as a miners’ strike plunged the country into darkness, he campaigned for re-election under the slogan: “Who governs Great Britain?” Brittany?”
Emmanuel Macron announces today his decision to dissolve the French parliament
Not you, voters responded. Heath was overthrown.
Now Macron asks the French: “What do you want: stability with me or chaos with Le Pen?”
However, with Europe in its current feverish mood, the knee-jerk reaction of many French voters will be to embrace chaos. The base of support for the technocratic Macronists is evaporating as young people become increasingly polarized, drawn to either the far right or the far left.
The far left in France is led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, an unpredictable firebrand. In fact, he could collaborate with Le Pen to deny Macron’s supporters any chance of winning a majority, so that he can lead the country to socialism once the electorate becomes disillusioned with Le Pen.
The big difference with the French system is that, even if his party is defeated at the polls, Macron will not be forced to resign as president. He holds that position anyway, until 2027. But with Le Pen as prime minister, he would not so much be an outgoing duck, but rather a cooked goose.
A Le Pen regime would be intensely antagonistic to France’s burgeoning Muslim population, and one possible consequence could be an increase in terrorist attacks.
But the biggest impact could come from the war in Ukraine.
Although Macron was initially a Putin appeaser, over the past six months he has become increasingly anti-Kremlin, pulling France’s weight with its seat on the UN Security Council as well as its nuclear status.
Le Pen, meanwhile, has often expressed her admiration for Russia and its dictator, and is likely to withdraw her support for President Zelensky in kyiv.
Add to that the strong possibility that Donald Trump will return to the White House early next year, and the real winner from Macron’s extraordinary decision could be Russia.