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Winning your conference is a big deal in the era of expanded college football playoffs.
The four major conference champions will advance directly to the second round of the 12-team postseason. With just four power conferences remaining following the demise of the Pac-12, the league title is essentially a guaranteed bye week.
With the 2024 season quickly approaching, let’s take a look at the Big 12, a conference that figures to be extremely deep, even if it doesn’t have a top-tier national title contender.
(All-Power Conference Preview: ACC, Ten big ones, 12 big, SECOND)
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Utah (+275)
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Kansas State (+375)
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Oklahoma State (+700)
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Kansas (+900)
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University of California, Berkeley (+900)
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Iowa State (+900)
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Arizona (+1400)
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Texas Tech University (+1600)
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UCT (+2000)
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West Virginia (+2000)
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Colorado (+2500)
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Baylor (+6000)
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Cincinnati (+8000)
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State of Arizona (+10000)
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Brigham Young University (+15000)
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Houston (+15000)
Is this the most even conference?
The Big 12 has the most teams of any power conference that are 20-1 or better likely to win the conference title and make the College Football Playoff. While the Big 12 may not have a top-five or even top-ten team in its ranks, this conference does boast plenty of depth and plenty of teams that believe they can win and make the playoffs.
Utah enters its first season in the Big 12 as the favorite with the return of QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe. Both players missed the 2023 season with knee injuries.
Rising is entering his seventh season of college football and is a surprise Heisman candidate, assuming he’s fully recovered from the significant injury he suffered in the Rose Bowl 20 months ago. Utah’s offense was awful without him in 2023 and simply having the threat of both the run and pass will go a long way in complementing a defense that should still be very, very good.
Kansas State is the No. 2 seed, as the Wildcats boast one of the most intriguing rushing offenses heading into the season. Avery Johnson takes over at quarterback after playing a limited role in 2023. He’s a speed demon and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. Joining him in the backfield are running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards. Giddens rushed for over 1,200 yards last season and Edwards, a Kansas native, comes in after spending his freshman season at Colorado. He was more dynamic with the Buffaloes as a receiver than a running back, but that could have totally been a product of Colorado’s porous offensive line.
Oklahoma State reached the Big 12 title game a season ago after a solid regular season following a blowout Week 2 loss to South Alabama. The Cowboys return many players from that 10-4 season, including RB Ollie Gordon. He’s likely the Heisman favorite among non-quarterbacks. The ceiling of Oklahoma State’s offense will depend on Alan Bowman. The former Texas Tech and Michigan quarterback is, like Rising, entering his seventh season, but he averaged less than seven yards per attempt last season.
Arguments for the next level
As the odds suggest, realistic predictions for Big 12 title wins can be made for a handful of teams outside of the top three favorites.
Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels was the preseason player of the year a season ago but missed much of 2023 with a back injury. Kansas has averaged over 34 points per game in each of the past two seasons and made a three-game jump in 2023 due to improvements on defense. The defense may not be great, but it should be good enough to keep the Jayhawks in contention if Daniels is healthy for the entire season.
UCF brought in former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson during the offseason and he could be a fantastic addition to Gus Malzahn’s offense. Jefferson was a disconcerting player at times with the Razorbacks, and if he can cut down on the mistakes, UCF’s offense has very high potential.
Iowa State’s offense should improve in 2024 after Rocco Becht emerged as the team’s starting QB as a freshman. RB Abu Sama averaged over seven yards per carry last season and WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are back. However, the November schedule is incredibly difficult for the Cyclones. They’ll visit both Kansas and Utah and have Kansas State at home to finish the season.
Arizona might be a bit undervalued at +1400. The Wildcats have a new coach in former San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan, but the offense brings back QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan along with four starters on the offensive line. September will be a good month for the Wildcats with games at Kansas State and Utah.
How good will Colorado be?
The team that gets the most attention in the conference also has very little chance of contending for the title. Never say never, of course, but it will be a surprise if the Buffaloes make it to the Big 12 championship game.
Year two of the Deion Sanders era amounts to another revamped roster with a focus on the offensive line. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders was sacked more than 50 times in 2023 and Colorado simply couldn’t run the ball.
Retooled offensive lines, however, often take time. And Colorado doesn’t really have the benefit of time to make the most of this season before Shedeur Sanders and star cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter leave for the NFL. One of the projected new starters on the line is five-star rookie Jordan Seaton. He already has a lot of responsibility.
The best realistic scenario for Colorado this season should be a bowl game. The team’s over/under of 5.5 wins at BetMGM looks perfect, and strong arguments can be made for both sides of that number. If the roster is truly better than it was a season ago, asking for two more wins than in 2023 isn’t that far-fetched.
By contrast, Colorado’s schedule is tough. North Dakota State isn’t a pushover, and both Nebraska and Colorado State are aiming to be better in 2024. The Buffs’ conference schedule includes seven teams that made bowl games a season ago and the top five favorites for the conference title. If those five games are losses, then Colorado’s margin for error in bowl games is very small.
