From the World Meteorological Organization declared the beginning of the current El Niño on July 4, 2023, almost a year has passed in a row record temperatures. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, there is a 61 percent chance that this year could be even hotter than last, spelling danger for areas prone to deadly heat waves during the summer months. An estimate 2,300 people in the US died from heat-related illnesses in 2023, and researchers say the real number is probably higher.
All this heat has also settled into the oceans, creating more than a year of super hot surface temperatures and bleaching more than half of the planet’s coral reefs. It also provides potential fuel for hurricanes, which form when energy is absorbed vertically into the atmosphere. Normally, trade winds disperse heat and moisture across the water surface and prevent these forces from building up in one place. But during La Niña, cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean weaken high-altitude winds in the Atlantic that would normally disperse storms, allowing hurricanes to advance. form more easily.
“When that pattern sets in the Pacific, it changes wind patterns around the world,” said Matthew Rosencrans, senior forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “When it is strong, it can be the dominant signal on the entire planet.”
This year’s forecast is especially dangerous, since a likely rapid transition to La Niña in midsummer could combine with all that boiling ocean water. NOAA forecasters expect these conditions to generate at least 17 storms large enough to have a name, about half of which could be hurricanes. Even a hurricane with relatively low winds can dump enough water to cause catastrophic flooding. hundreds of miles inland.
“It’s important to think about climate change making things worse,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University. Although human-caused warming will not directly increase the frequency of hurricanes, he said, it may make them more destructive. “It’s a question of how much worse the situation will get,” she said.
Over the past 10 months, El Niño helped create scorching temperatures in some parts of the United States, drying out the land. Drought-affected areas are more vulnerable to severe flooding, as periods without rainfall mean the rains are likely to be heavier when they finally arrive, and soils may be too dry to absorb water. As parched land and high temperatures dry out vegetation, the stage is set for wildfires.
While the National Interagency Fire Center expects below-average odds of a large fire in California this year, in part because El Niño brought unusually high rainfall to the state, other places may not be so lucky. the agency seasonal forest fire risk map Hawaii stands out, which suffered the country’s crisis the deadliest hell partly as a result of a persistent drought on Maui last August. Canada, which also experienced its worst fire season last summer, could be in more trouble after its warmest winter. By May of this year, smoke from hundreds of wildfires in Alberta and British Columbia had already begun to leak across the Canadian border to the Midwestern states.
“We are leaving the climate of the 20th century and entering a new climate of the 21st century,” Dessler said. Unfortunately, our cities were built for a variety of temperatures and weather conditions that no longer exist.
To prepare for hurricanes, Rosencrans said people living in states along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Ocean should go to government disaster preparedness websites to find disaster kit checklists and tips on making an emergency plan. “Thinking about it now, instead of when the storm is coming, will save you a lot of time, energy and stress,” he said.
