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On the morning of August 11, the Tigers woke up in San Francisco looking like a team playing all out. They were 55-63, eight games under .500. The Toronto Blue Jays, perhaps the most disappointing team this season, had an identical record.
Two weeks earlier at the trade deadline, Detroit had traded its second-best starting pitcher and an everyday outfielder. Six teams stood between the Tigers and the final playoff spot in the American League. No one in the Motor City was thinking about October baseball.
Since that morning, the Tigers are 30-11, the best record in the MLB.
With one weekend left in the regular season, Detroit’s magic number is one. The remaining three games are at home against the historically abysmal Chicago White Sox. A postseason berth, which seemed impossible six weeks ago, is now almost inevitable. On Thursday, the Tigers pulled off another late comeback against the Tampa Bay Rays to secure a sweep.
In the eighth inning, outfielder and third baseman Matt Vierling, who at 28 years old qualifies as a Methuselah on this team, raced home to score the go-ahead run on Justyn Henry Malloy’s sacrifice fly. Jumping out of his head-first slide, Vierling raised his fist in the air and roared like a flare. One inning later, Tigers closer Jason Foley hit José Siri to end the game. A staggering crowd rose to its feet.
Team announcer Jason Benetti offered an unforgettable conclusion: “A city that doesn’t care about the odds has a baseball team to match.”
So what is this team? Who’s in it? How has this group achieved such a miraculous change? And can the “Gritty Tigs” make some noise in October?
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AJ Hinch
A manager can’t pitch scoreless innings or drive in runs, at least not anymore (we should bring back player-managers, that would be hilarious), but there’s no doubt that Hinch has had a huge impact on this club. For five years, Hinch led the Houston Astros during the most successful era in franchise history, with four postseason berths, three American League Championship Series appearances and a World Series title in 2017. He was fired in January 2020 after his team was embroiled in the infamous sign-stealing and can-banging scandal that shook the baseball world.
But Hinch emerged from his one-year suspension with his reputation largely intact. People still believed he was a good administrator, worthy of a job, worthy of redemption. By comparison, his old boss, former Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow, hasn’t worked in baseball since. Detroit hired Hinch before the 2022 season, and while the Tigers were disappointing in his first two seasons, that had more to do with the roster than the manager.
Over the past six weeks, Hinch’s value has shined. He provides a steady, calm voice that has experienced the game’s biggest moments. He has also shown a masterful understanding of his own bench and bullpen, leading the Tigers through such a phenomenal stretch, despite having only two traditional starting pitchers for most of that stretch. He used all 14 available position players in Thursday’s victory.
Most importantly, Hinch has made this team believe in itself. This is, in short, a man who knows what he is doing.
Tarik Skubal
In six weeks, Skubal will win the American League Cy Young Award. There is a good chance that it will do so unanimously. It will be an immensely well-deserved honor. The Tigers ace has the lowest ERA on the circuit, the most strikeouts and the second most innings.
And in his last eight starts during Detroit’s rise to contention, Skubal has taken things to another level, posting a 1.85 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings. When he pitches, the Tigers usually win.
One crucial thing to watch is whether the Tigers can clinch a playoff spot before Sunday, the day after Skubal pitches. If he is needed to pitch on the final day of the season, that would almost certainly leave him unavailable for a potential American League wild-card series. If the Tigers can secure their wild card spot before then, Skubal will likely be ready for Game 1.
a horse stable
During this club’s 41 games since Aug. 11, Tigers starters have pitched just 150 2/3 innings. That’s an average of 3 2/3 frames per game. The only two traditional starters during that stretch have been Skubal and rookie Keider Montero. Reese Olson, who was a regular starter for the first few months of the season, has maxed out four innings since returning from injury a few weeks ago.
This strategy has put enormous pressure on Detroit’s bullpen, but it is up to the task. Since August 11, Detroit relievers have made 65 multi-inning relief appearances. The next closest team, the Chicago White Sox, has managed just 49. The featherweight sextet of Brant Hurter, Tyler Holton, Brenan Hanifee, Sean Guenther, Will Vest and Jason Foley each have an ERA of 2.22 or less during that period. The team’s 2.27 reliever ERA over that stretch is the best in baseball.
Detroit also just called up 22-year-old Jackson Jobe, perhaps the best pitching prospect in the game, to join the bullpen down the stretch. He threw a scoreless frame in his debut on Wednesday.
Kerry Carpenter
Here are the players this season with at least 250 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, ranked by OPS:
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Aaron Judge (probable American League MVP)
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Shohei Ohtani (probable NL MVP)
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Bobby Witt Jr. (probable AL MVP runner-up)
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Juan Soto (probable third place AL MVP)
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Kerry Carpenter
The Tigers’ left-handed designated hitter missed nearly three months due to a back problem and returned Aug. 13. As the numbers above indicate, he is a monster against the Northlegs; his .OPS is .953 since returning. Teams attack him with left-handed pitching late in games, but Carpenter is a legitimately elite hitter whenever he has the pack advantage.
A little-known group of very solid hitters
The most famous Detroit Tiger, Javier Báez, has not played since August 22. Signed to a substantial contract ahead of the 2022 season, the big-swinging shortstop has been absolutely abysmal for the Tigers, slashing .221/.262/.347 line while wearing navy and orange.
But fame is overrated. Winning is better, as the Tigers have shown. Riley Greene was the only position player on the All-Star team this season; has continued raking. Former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who was demoted to Triple-A after a horrendous first half, has improved a lot since his Aug. 17 retirement. Zach McKinstry, Matt Vierling and Parker Meadows have all taken steps forward. Hinch frequently mixes and matches to ensure advantageous matchups.
It’s not an overwhelming lineup (Detroit ranks 23rd in the MLB in home runs this year), but it’s getting the job done.
