Kamala Harris is showing a last-second surge in an unexpected area, typically bright red Iowa.
Des Moines/Mediacom Iowa Final Record Survey The newly released poll shows Vice President Harris leading Donald Trump 47 to 44 percent among likely voters.
It’s a total outlier and the first sign that the state has moved toward the Democrats.
Polls in September showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris. The former president had an 18-point lead over President Biden in June before dropping out of the race.
But things have changed since then, the new poll reveals, presenting a new potential path to victory for Harris and her campaign.
New poll shows Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa
Harris’ three-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error.
Surprisingly, the poll also found that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received three percent of the vote.
Kennedy notably won nine percent of the vote in the state, according to polls conducted in June.
Harris’ surprise lead is boosted by independent women voters, who are expected to swing to the Democrat as men flock to Trump.
Harris has a 28-point lead with these women over Trump. Independent men, on the other hand, are leaning toward the Republican Party.
While another Iowa poll shows the race firmly in Republican hands.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris waves to the crowd during a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on November 2, 2024.
Both Trump and Harris were in North Carolina on Saturday.
Former President Trump and Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are tied in the polls with 3 days left until the election
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An Emerson College poll found the former president with a 53 percent lead to Harris’ 43 percent.
Trump’s 10-point lead in that poll is within the three-point margin of error.
Both Iowa polls were released on Saturday, just three days before Election Day.
The latest election forecast model from JL Partners delivered to DailyMail.com on Saturday also spells bad news for Trump.
The model is moving away from “leaning” Trump toward “ruined” territory.
Trump remains the favorite, winning in 62.2 percent of simulations.
But that’s a 2.5-point drop since Friday, and it’s now down seven points in five days, reflecting a series of polls favorable to Kamala Harris.
Former President Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, looks at a video screen at a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Salem, Virginia.
Trump has a 10-point lead in Iowa, according to Emerson
Every swing state has seen moves against Trump.
Callum Hunter, Data Scientist at JL Partners, writes in his latest briefing note:
‘It is now clear that the momentum in recent polls is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s probability of victory has fallen 7 points in five days and if more polls are released showing similar patterns to those of the last few days, the race will shift from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before Election Day.
