The only time a rookie won the NFL MVP was in 1957. The winner was Jim Brown, arguably the greatest player in history.
Last season, Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud was the rare rookie in the running. He faded away and it seemed like it would be a long time before a rookie made a splash again in the MVP race.
Then Jayden Daniels arrived.
For the second straight season, a rookie is defending his chance to make the MVP list. It’s very early in the season, but Daniels is checking all the boxes you’d want for the award. The Washington Commanders are atop the NFC East thanks to a surprisingly efficient offense led by their electric rookie quarterback.
Daniels has been better than anyone could have realistically anticipated, and MVP odds at BetMGM changed dramatically to reflect its good start.
Jayden Daniels’ rise increases NFL MVP odds
After another big game from Daniels in a Week 5 blowout of the Cleveland Browns, he’s officially an MVP candidate, judging by the odds.
As of Monday morning, only four players have better odds to win MVP than Daniels, who has 10-to-1 odds. Here are the top five:
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Patrick Mahomes: +300
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Josh Allen: +600
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Lamar Jackson: +650
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CJ Stroud: +700
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Jayden Daniels: +1000
That puts Daniels ahead of all non-quarterbacks and many productive veteran quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.
And as Daniels has dazzled on the field, his MVP odds at BetMGM have seen a massive change, even in recent weeks:
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Opening fees: 200 to 1
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Before week 4: 100 to 1
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Before week 5: 30 to 1
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After week 5: 10 to 1
While it seems hard to believe that a rookie can maintain an MVP pace all season long, and that the Commanders can continue winning at a rate that keeps Daniels moving up in the MVP conversation, it’s not like anyone has a better case than these heights. stage of the season.
Daniels builds an MVP case
Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0, but statistically, he’s having a pretty average start to the season, especially by his standards. Allen completed just 9 of 30 passes in the Week 5 loss. Jackson has been good again, but Derrick Henry has been an even bigger part of the offense in some recent wins. Stroud has a great argument, but Daniels has a better passer rating (106.3 to 98.2), completion percentage (77.1% to 68.9%) and yards per attempt (8.7 to 7, 8). And Daniels is off to a historic start for a quarterback, with 300 yards in five games.
And the Commanders’ offense has gone from being one of the NFL’s 10 worst last season at a pace that rivals some of the best offenses in recent NFL history. That’s without any major improvements to the supporting cast during the offseason, other than adding an instant superstar at quarterback.
Top four violations in points per drive in weeks 1-5 since at least 2000:
1. 2020 Packers (MVP Aaron Rodgers)
2. 2000 Rams (Greatest Show on Turf / MVP Marshall Faulk)
3. 2013 Broncos (MVP Peyton Manning)
4. Commanders of 2024 (Jayden Daniels)
– Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 7, 2024
It’s very early. It would take a near-perfect season for a rookie to win the NFL MVP award, and Daniels is unlikely to have it. It also seems unlikely that the Commanders will continue what has been a remarkable pace offensively, especially as they begin to face some of the toughest opponents on their schedule.
But the MVP odds tell a story. Daniels is not only a clear favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he is also in the conversation for the NFL’s highest award.
