Peter Dutton’s strategy to convince Australians to vote against a one-term Prime Minister is all about killing Albo with kindness.
Or, as the leader of the opposition recently put it, the message is that the Prime Minister is a nice guy, but he is not up to the job.
“It is obvious to all Australians that the prime minister may not be a bad person now,” Dutton said.
“But he is a scandalous prime minister and cannot make decisions that are ultimately in the best interests of our country.”
Liberal Party research has found that undecided voters are generally supportive of Anthony Albanese.
It is true that many voters do not believe this, but they are not even considering voting Labour.
Australia’s compulsory voting system dictates that undecided voters decide elections, so they inevitably become the focus of major party campaigns.
Internal party focus groups have consistently revealed that many swing voters (or what we might call traditional swing voters who backed Labour in the 2022 election) think Albo is someone they could imagine having a beer with.
But his good-guy image (our prime minister DJ even has a beer named after him) does not guarantee that voters will think he is a competent leader, capable of tackling current challenges.
Peter Dutton has recently changed his mind about Anthony Albanese (above, with fiancée Jodie watching the Rabbitohs), saying that “he may not be a bad person, but he is a shocking Prime Minister”.
‘DJ Albo’ was the right man to sweep the unpopular Scott Morrison from office… but for a majority in a second term, the government needs the Prime Minister to convince voters he is competent.
Indeed, polls conducted by both parties show that undecided voters have serious concerns about Albo’s ability to help the country through these tough economic times.
These questions about the Prime Minister’s abilities are exacerbated by the reality that Labor generally lags behind the Coalition on the all-important criteria of “economic management”.
Fair or not, this has been the case for decades.
At the last election it didn’t matter because Australians wanted to get rid of Scott Morrison. Albo’s good-guy image was in stark contrast to the opinion many voters had of Morrison.
At that moment it was enough.
What the major parties are now trying to assess is whether it is still enough to achieve a second victory.
The investigation is also looking into whether the good guy character can take down Peter Dutton in the same way he did Morrison.
Unlike Morrison, Dutton is a nice guy. Anyone who knows him well can attest to that.
It is one of the reasons he has managed to successfully hold on to his marginal Brisbane electorate despite redistributions favouring Labor.
But nationally, nice guy or not, Dutton doesn’t have the same reputation as Albo.
With a cost of living crisis, inflation rising and everyone struggling under a per capita recession, Labour may need more than just a good boss.
He needs voters to shift from seeing Albo as likable to seeing him as competent. If he can’t create that shift in perceptions, he’ll have to resort to a negative campaign that paints Dutton as just another unlikable candidate: Morrison 2.0.
Albo, like Bob Hawke, already has a beer named after him. Pressing the argument that Albo will not be able to help voters lead better lives is the Coalition’s only hope.
For their part, the Liberals have clearly accepted that Albo’s sympathy will not change before election day, at least among undecided voters.
Dutton’s comments that Albo “may not be a bad person, but he is a scandalous prime minister” are lifted almost word for word from Liberal Party discussion groups.
These are points raised by undecided voters who are worried that Albo will not be able to help them lead better lives.
Insisting on that point between now and the next election is the Coalition’s only hope of achieving what has not been done since 1931: a first-term opposition defeating a first-term government.
It is a degree of difficulty that is made even more difficult when the Prime Minister is pleasant.
Australians want to give their governments a second chance, a sentiment that is more likely to influence voting patterns if the prime minister is perceived as likable.
This suggests Albo is in a position to retain the seat at the next election, even if Labour loses its majority and must govern in a minority after a tight result.
Unless the Coalition can convince enough undecided voters that, whether Albo likes them or not, re-election will cause economic problems that can be avoided if they hold their noses and vote to change the government.