Not since King Harold, his brothers, and much of the Saxon nobility were annihilated at the Battle of Hastings nearly 1,000 years ago has one side annihilated its enemy’s leadership so suddenly and completely.
First, the Israelis killed, blinded and maimed thousands of mid-range Hezbollah terrorists, setting off explosions on their pagers and walkie-talkies.
Then on Friday, in a series of strikes as surgically precise as they were powerful, Israel’s air force dropped up to 16 bunker-buster bombs on the underground lair where Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was meeting with his top brass.
They must have believed they were safe in their reinforced concrete hideout, but for so many essential figures to be gathered in one place demonstrated reckless arrogance that was mercilessly punished.
About 20 senior militia commanders were killed, including the organization’s security chief, Ibrahim Hussein Jazini, and Nasrallah’s closest confidant, Samir Tawfiq Dib. A day later, Nabil Qaouk, a key figure in Hezbollah’s central council, was killed in another airstrike.
A march in Sadr City in Baghdad, Iraq, as people pay tribute to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli Air Force strike in Beirut.
Militant group Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death following afternoon attack on his ‘headquarters’
Clouds of smoke and flames rise into the sky after an Israeli airstrike hit a neighborhood in the southern suburb of Beirut on September 28.
By any sensible view, the war between Israel and Hezbollah should be over. But fanatics are neither sane nor rational.
This is a fighting force whose lower ranks are obsessed with martyrdom. They have been completely defeated, but that does not mean they will give up.
Until now, the Islamist militia was rigidly disciplined and Nasrallah exercised supreme control. But with the beheading of its leaders and the destruction of its communications network, Hezbollah’s henchmen will have nothing to guide them except their own manic – and perhaps suicidal – initiatives.
Up to half of its arsenal of rockets, shells and artillery has been destroyed, but there are still a large number of weapons at the disposal of local commanders eager to burnish their own combat reputation and leadership ambitions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely feel he has no choice but to order a ground invasion of Lebanon to wipe out the smoking remains of Hezbollah. But that’s a high-risk strategy for three reasons.
First, Israeli casualties will be higher. On the nondescript plains of Gaza, your enemy has nowhere to hide. But in the mountainous terrain of southern Lebanon it can dart in and out of cover and wreak havoc with its armor-penetrating missiles.
Second, a ground invasion will create a huge refugee crisis. Last week, 80,000 civilians fled Lebanon for makeshift camps in Syria. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati warned that up to a million people could be displaced.
This exodus could be the perfect cover for the scattered remnants of Hezbollah to spread terrorism throughout Europe. Unable to attack Israel, some might prefer to increase international pressure by exporting misery and violence to Israel’s supporters, including Britain.
Hashem Safieddine, senior Hezbollah official, speaking at Mohammed Nasser, a commander at the militant group’s funeral on July 4, 20224
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaking at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly at its headquarters in New York City on September 27.
Smoke rises over Beirut’s southern suburbs after Israeli airstrikes on September 28.
First responders and civilians used a spread to clear debris after the airstrike in Haret Hreik, south of Beirut, on September 27.
Third, perhaps most disturbing, the sheer effectiveness of Israel’s megaton kills is likely to accelerate the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Israel has already shown that it has no qualms about killing enemies on Iranian soil, with the July elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Now, the knowledge that no bunker is safe will galvanize Iran’s leaders. Although they are under enormous domestic pressure to retaliate directly against Israel, they fear the consequences, whether their own assassinations or airstrikes against their nuclear facilities.
The mullahs will not want to provoke such an attack, especially since they are just weeks away from producing enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.
They are likely to conclude that it makes more sense to challenge Israel using its proxy militias, such as the Houthis in Yemen, whose rocket attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea are designed to economically strangle Israel.
For Iran to create a viable nuclear weapon, it will also need a detonator, a technology that is not easy to build. But this project could also be nearing completion, possibly with the help of North Korea.
If Iran successfully tests an atomic bomb, international efforts to prevent a nuclear war will become increasingly hysterical. The UN Security Council could try to persuade Iran to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for a ceasefire, but this would have little chance of success without the cooperation of the United States, which may consider there is no way back. to the nuclear genius. in the bottle once the test has been carried out.
Israel has won a spectacular tactical victory over Hezbollah. But the main strategic enemy could soon be a nuclear-armed Iran. Armageddon calls for one side… or both.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford.
