Forecasters are tracking an area of possible tropical storm development in the Caribbean that could send another hurricane toward Florida.
Tropical Storm Patty could form in the western and central Sea region next week, with a formation window of October 30 to November 2, according to AccuWeather.
As the Atlantic approaches the final month of hurricane season, the risk of tropical depression or storm development is currently “high” in this area, which is near where Tropical Storm Nadine formed last week.
“We suspect there will be another attempt at a tropical depression or tropical storm to form in the western Caribbean mid to late next week,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
“As a result, we have created an advanced risk development zone.”
The exact path this storm could follow is still unclear. But atmospheric conditions could prove favorable for a track in Florida, said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex DaSilva.
If Patty heads toward Florida, it would make landfall on the state’s western coast, which is still recovering from two major hurricanes in a row: Helene in September and Milton in October.
Forecasters are tracking an area of possible tropical storm development in the Caribbean that could send another hurricane toward Florida.
The storm’s final path will be determined by the jet stream, the fast, narrow current of air that flows from west to east and surrounds the planet.
“As far as Florida is concerned, what would essentially have to happen is there would have to be some type of drop in the jet stream to drag that storm north,” DaSilva said. news week.
‘It is certainly possible for that to happen. There have been storms during the month of November that have been blown north toward the Florida peninsula.’
Depending on atmospheric conditions, the potential Patty may move inland and affect the Carolinas, which are still recovering from the impact of Hurricane Helene.
The reason meteorologists are paying close attention to this area is that its conditions are conducive to the formation of hurricanes.
Water temperatures are warm in the Caribbean both on the surface and at depth, AccuWeather reported. This heat can fuel tropical storms.
‘I know there will be rain and thunderstorms in this area next week. The issue is wind shear,” Rayno said.
Wind shear is a change in wind speed and/or direction over a short distance. It can make or break a tropical storm depending on several factors, including whether the wind shear is vertical or horizontal and its strength.
Water temperatures are warm in the Caribbean both on the surface and at depth, AccuWeather reported. This heat can fuel tropical storms
As for how it might affect potential Tropical Storm Patty, “if there’s low wind shear, which we expect, I think a depression or tropical storm will form,” Rayno said.
Additionally, this high risk of tropical storm formation is due in part to the Central American Gyre, a large, swollen area of low pressure that is most active at the beginning and end of hurricane season.
When tropical storms form within this gyre, they can take longer to organize into a cyclone, resulting in days of stormy conditions and rough seas in the Caribbean before the storm receives an official name, according to AccuWeather.
“From a climatological standpoint, tropical storms that form in this area in late October and early November tend to track toward Central America or possibly northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas,” the senior meteorologist said. from AccuWeather, Alex Sosnowski.
“However, a route to Florida or the southeastern continental United States is not out of the question at this time,” he added.
Despite the concern of meteorologists, the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows no threat of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean during the next seven days.
If Patty forms, this storm would come on the heels of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall in Cuba as a Category 1 storm, leaving at least six dead in its wake.
Tropical Storm Nadine, which formed near the high-risk zone that forecasters are currently monitoring, made landfall in Belize before dissolving over Mexico and then becoming Hurricane Kristy, all in just 72 hours.
This Category 5 storm is currently located approximately 650 miles southwest of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula and is moving west at a steady 16 mph, but is not expected to make landfall.
