And then, the main dilemma: who has to be responsible for what? The so-called global south is pushing for money to navigate a path from developed countries to those left behind, who have played no historic role in the climate crisis. The industrialized world, on the other hand, demands decarbonization commitments from developing nations, partly as a matter of safeguarding industrial and technological competitiveness.
Complicating matters is the position of China, which accounts for a third of global emissions, more than any other country. Despite this, the UN still considers it on the path to development, meaning it is not formally obliged to make the same economic commitments as the world’s historic big polluters. However, Beijing could choose to make bold commitments to boost its international prestige.
Who is there and who is missing?
Delegations from almost 200 countries have arrived in Baku. Among the first to arrive, after traveling last week, was the American.
However, outgoing US President Joe Biden is not expected to attend the summit. Also absent are Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who is busy with the formation of the new EC in early December; In her place is the European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, who has a reputation as an excellent diplomat. Brussels’ negotiating position has been affected by the impact of the tragic floods in Valencia, Spain, in recent weeks, signaling the need to devote more resources to climate adaptation.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, immersed in a government crisis, will not be present. So will French President Emmanuel Macron due to disagreements with Baku over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involving Azerbaijan and Armenia. In addition to him, most French NGOs will not participate.
Also staying home will be Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will send new climate envoy Liu Zhenmin; Russian President Vladimir Putin; and Brazilian President Lula, who is replaced by Environment Minister Marina Silva. The leaders of Japan, Australia (another big polluter) and Mexico won’t be there either.
The decision of Papua New Guinea, one of the countries most affected by climate change, to boycott COP29 is causing a sensation. “Every big emitter in the world is pledging millions of dollars to help combat climate change,” said PNG Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko. “But I can already tell you that everything will be handed over to consultants, who will ask the countries concerned not to overdo it.”
What impact will the US elections have?
The elephant in the room is Donald Trump’s recent victory. In 2016, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, which set the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius; Joe Biden then rejoined the climate pact as soon as he entered the White House.
The problem is that Trump’s intentions remain difficult to interpret. Trump has expressed his desire to withdraw once again from the Paris Agreement, and also to leave the UN convention that oversees the COPs, “a measure that would result in Washington not even participating in the negotiating tables as an observer,” says Jacopo Bencini. researcher at the Carbon Markets Hub of the European University Institute of Florence.
