Warm water provides the energy hurricanes need to grow and thrive. Strong winds evaporate a small amount of water from the sea surface. This warm water vapor rises into the clouds and releases its heat, which fuels thunderstorms that increase the intensity of a hurricane.
The Atlantic Ocean has been boiling over for the past year and a half. Sea surface temperatures across the ocean were the warmest on record almost all of 2023 and Continuing until 2024.
It’s not just that sea surface temperatures are at historically high levels: that heat also extends hundreds of meters deep beneath the surface.
Scientists use ocean heat content (OHC) to measure the depth of heat across the ocean. The intense winds of a hurricane churn up the ocean and force cooler waters below to rise to the surface, leaving cooler waters behind in their wake.
Higher OHC values limit the amount of cooling left behind by a storm, allowing the ocean to more easily support high-intensity storms later on.
OHC values in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are well above normal values for this time of summer, and that is unlikely to change much as we approach the peak of the season.
All that potential energy is what has meteorologists so worried about the rest of the hurricane season. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University Both have released aggressive seasonal forecasts that call for as many as two dozen named tropical storms this year.
Experts knew the ocean would be able to withstand terrifying storms this year. The only surprise is that Beryl formed so early. This early-season storm could serve as a harbinger of any storms that form later this year.
Courtesy of NOAA
Water temperatures are only part of the equation. A tropical cyclone is an exceptionally fragile structure that also requires vigorous and organized thunderstorms, little wind shear, abundant moisture in the atmosphere and few obstacles in its path to become a formidable beast.
Many of those ingredients are expected during this hurricane season, too, as forecasters watch for the possibility of a La Niña developing later this summer. La Niña patterns can make conditions more favorable for Atlantic storms by reducing wind shear in the region.
It’s not just the number of storms that could form this year that has experts concerned, but their nature. Beryl just proved that any storm that takes hold in a favorable environment could take advantage of those exceptionally warm waters to enter the record books. Any one of the many storms predicted for this season could have a chance to become a destructive hurricane that warrants extra attention and preparation.
People living along or near the coast should take advantage of the relative calm of early hurricane season to prepare for what may happen later this summer. An emergency kit Stock up on supplies to deal with extended utility outages. Plan what to do and where to go if you are ordered to evacuate your area before a storm.