Oh, how they laughed. When asked on Monday whether it was his intention to campaign for absolute power in 2029, Nigel Farage was clear. “Yes, absolutely,” he told the BBC. He planned to “build a beachhead in the commons” in this election, and then build a “major national campaign movement across the country over the course of the next five years for genuine change.”
The response was a mockery. “It’s ridiculous,” said outgoing Cabinet minister Michael Gove. “Don’t be silly,” proclaimed Tony Blair’s biographer John Rentoul.
You are wrong. Our political establishment may not want to hear it. But with just two weeks left in the campaign, the Reform leader now has a clear and credible path to Downing Street.
Reform Party leader Nigel Farage speaks at a Meet Nigel Farage event in Clacton yesterday.
The first stage involves him winning at Clacton. And that currently seems to be a formality. A projection published yesterday by pollster Ipsos puts Farage on 52 per cent, while the Labor Party is far behind on 24 per cent. The bookmakers have him 1-5 to win the Essex seat. Yesterday he packed the 820-seat Princes Theater in an event that one journalist compared to a rock concert.
The second stage is even easier to navigate, because it involves the elimination of the conservatives (guaranteed), followed by a realignment of the right (equally inevitable). The Government’s current situation was perfectly summed up in Mel Stride’s performance at this morning’s press conference. The fact that the hitherto anonymous Secretary for Work and Pensions is periodically sent to act as a kind of political piñata tells his own story.
But if someone didn’t understand the message, Stride himself explained it. “You could see a Labor government with 450 or 460 seats, the largest majority in the history of this country,” he explained helpfully.
Once that elimination has occurred, the remnants of the Conservative Party will draw a single, simple conclusion. That they will never again be able to campaign again with their electoral coalition divided in two.
In fact, many Conservative MPs are not even willing to wait for that result. Last week it emerged that former minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was distributing campaign material with photographs of her attending Nigel Farage’s birthday party emblazoned on the front of it. When questioned, a spokesman said: “She finds it regrettable that party leaders have failed to see the bigger picture in uniting the right to stop a socialist supermajority.” After the election, Conservative MPs will have to work with the broader Conservative movement to achieve their goals.’
Jenkyns reflects the opinion of many of his colleagues. That is why this will almost certainly be the last general election fought by the Conservative Party as it is currently constituted. The New Conservatives or Reformed Conservatives will be on the ballot in 2029. And when that realignment occurs, the third stage of Nigel Farage’s five-year masterplan will fit perfectly.
Because as soon as the new party is established, Farage becoming its leader will be as inevitable as night and day. Whoever is chosen as Rishi Sunak’s immediate replacement will have been forced to run in order to get closer to the reformist leader and bring him into the Conservative fold. And when they do, it will be a similar scenario to the one we saw when Theresa May brought Boris into her cabinet. Everything the new Conservative leader does will be analyzed through the prism of “what does Nigel think?” It will slowly but surely consume his political oxygen. And then, when the time is right, cross them out and replace them.
The smartly dressed Farage’s footwear included these patriotic-looking socks.
Crowds of reform fans at the Meet Nigel Farage event in Clacton. Farage will soon be the official leader of the opposition, with all the stature that comes with the position, writes Dan Hodges.
Former minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns has been distributing campaign material with photographs of her attending Nigel Farage’s birthday party.
At that point all bets are off. Farage will be the official leader of the opposition, with all the stature that the position grants. And the only thing standing between him and power will be Keir Starmer.
Yes, the new Labor government will almost certainly enjoy a large majority. But it will also face a huge set of challenges. A sick economy, record taxes, unprecedented debt, public services in ruins, zero fiscal space. This will be the inheritance of Starmer and Reeves. Small boats. Putin. Porcelain. President Trump, the sequel. A resurgent European right. A crisis in higher education. Uncontrolled work runs rampant. A crisis of law and order. Betrayal of the Red Wall. Blue Wall’s suspicion and resentment. A Corbynite insurgency. The resurgence of Welsh and Scottish nationalism.
A single slip-up from Starmer or perhaps a black swan event will be all it would take to fatally undermine his premiership. At that moment the famous door to number 10 will open.
Is any of this predetermined? No. Conservatives could see how Donald Trump has hijacked American Republicanism and turn their backs on Farage’s Faustian charm. Boris could return and go toe-to-toe with Farage in a gripping conservative version of Kong v Godzilla. Starmer could go on and on and on, patiently crushing Farage and his populism.
But make no mistake: the chain-smoking populist now has a plausible path to power.