Millions of voters head to the polls Tuesday to cast their votes in the 2024 presidential election and a series of back-to-back races. But it could take some time to count those results.
What might give anxious Americans across the country an idea of where the country is headed are the exit polls that are released when the results are known on Election Day.
The exit poll is the only poll conducted exclusively among voters who have already cast their ballots in the election.
It gives voters and news organizations a better idea of what’s happening on the ground with voters on Election Day and in early voting as results come in.
The poll is conducted by Edison Research, which has been the only research firm conducting national exit polls in the United States since 2004. It also conducts exit polls for midterm elections and presidential primaries.
Official results of the presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are expected to take some time, but exit polls could give an early indicator of where the race is headed and how people voted.
The 2024 survey includes polling locations across the country on Election Day, as well as in-person exit polls at early voting locations and a combination of telephone and web surveys of voters who cast their ballots by mail to obtain a complete picture of how people use multiple options. to cast their votes.
The data is provided to the National Electoral Group, that as a group of media networks that include ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC. The group marshals resources for a full vote recount and exit poll operation.
Those in the group do not report exit poll results before 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Election Day. As election night progresses, interviewers on the ground continue to request more exit poll results and the data is updated in real time.
Exit polls are considered an important tool because they provide Americans, political analysts, researchers, and even campaigns with a wide range of information to analyze political trends and what different groups of voters are thinking while voting.
“It helps determine how people view elections and understand the views of the American electorate,” said Rob Farbman of Edison Research.
Voters casting their ballots in Howell, Michigan. Exit polls include surveys conducted on Election Day of people who cast their ballots, as well as those who voted early in person and by mail.
Without exit polls, the only real information available would be the final vote count.
But once the poll starts to close, experts can look at the exit poll and voting data and start doing some analysis of what it all means.
Exit polls ask a variety of questions, including which candidate they voted for in the presidential race, as well as other down-ballot races.
But it also raises a number of other questions, including which issue is most important to a person’s vote.
It’s what allows news anchors and political pundits sitting around a table discussing an election the confidence to say that voters focused on the economy, immigration or abortion rights when they cast their ballots, as well as to announce the projected results.
It also asks a series of demographic questions including age, gender, race and education, helping political analysts understand trends, including, as examples, how women versus men voted, whether young people turned out, whether older people leaned Republican or whether Trump was able to gain support. of more voters of color, etc.
Demographic data is also used to help ensure that exit polls as a whole reflect the electorate that turned out.
Strong turnout among women, black voters and young people could be a good early sign for Harris. Strong turnout among white men and non-college-educated voters could be a good sign for Trump.
Signs outside a polling place in Florida. Some 20,000 interviews will be taken into account for national exit polls.
In addition to nationwide exit polls, members of the National Electoral Group also decide in which states exit polls will be conducted and determine what questions will be asked of voters.
It takes voters approximately five minutes to complete the questionnaires.
The national exit polls will be based on approximately 20,000 interviews, according to Stephanie Perry, director of exit polls at NBC News. The sample size for each state exit poll is approximately 1,500 to 2,500 respondents.