NASA has captured an eruption of dark plasma on the Sun that has a 60 percent chance of causing blackouts on Earth this week.
The “cool” solar flare, at about 36,000 degrees Fahrenheit (F), is about one-quarter the temperature of “warm” solar flares, which average 144,000 degrees Fahrenheit (F) and are much better understood by scientists.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an alert on Monday warning that the dark plasma pulse could cause “fluctuations in the power grid.”
The flare has the potential to disrupt radios, aviation communications and satellite operations when it hits at least Friday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an alert on Monday warning that the dark plasma pulse from this “cold solar flare” could cause “fluctuations in the power grid.” Above, a composite image of the Sun from Monday, July 22, by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA).
NASA video from its Solar dynamics observatory showed a dark cloud from the cold solar flare erupting from the sun, creating what looks like black smoke as this cooler-than-average plasma shot northward across the sun’s surface.
So-called “cold” solar flares, which have only been the subject of serious study by astrophysicists in the last decade, appear to be No less high in microwave radiation than a “warm” solar flare.
These lower temperature solar flares, according to a 2023 study, found that the flares produce…Higher peak frequencies of gyrosynchrotron emissionthe exact form of radiation responsible for the intense and disruptive radio emissions of a flare.
NOAA has warned there is a 60 percent chance of additional mid-level or M-class solar flares in the next 24 hours, and a 15 percent chance of a more extreme X-class flare, which could trigger radio blackouts around the world.
But this recent “cold” M-class solar flare emerged from the sunspot region called AR3757 on Sunday night.
Specifically, the flare was of class M1, which is at the lower end of the ten-point scale within this mid-M range.
Solar flares are divided into four letter categories according to their severity: X-class flares are the most intense, followed by M, C, and the weakest, B.
Only the X and M flares radiate energy powerful enough to affect Earth, where their electromagnetic pulses can cause electrical and communications disruptions.
In the past 24 hours, at least six M-class solar flares have caused radio disruptions internationally, including an M1 flare that caused radio blackouts in parts of the Western Hemisphere and three in Asia.
The largest of these was an M3.2-class flare that caused a radio blackout in the Pacific on Sunday night, according to Space Weather Prediction Center of the University of Athens.
Experts have warned that Earth will face increasingly severe solar storms over the next year.
NOAA also warned that there is a 60 percent chance of additional mid-level or M-class solar flares in the next 24 hours, and a 15 percent chance of a more extreme X-class solar flare, which could cause radio blackouts around the world. Above, an image of the sun taken by the AIA on July 22.
Smithsonian astrophysicist Dr. Jonathan McDowell told DailyMail.com in May that the Sun has not yet reached its “solar maximum,” the most energetic point in its recurring 11-year solar cycle, when increased turbulence boosts its energy output.
That ‘peak’ will finally arrive with the heat of summer next year: July 2025.
“We could easily have much larger storms over the next year or two,” explained Dr. McDowell, who works with the Smithsonian and Harvard’s Center for Astrophysics.
“It’s certainly a scary time for satellite operators,” he added.
“This is the time when we have the most sunspots and they’re starting to get bigger,” agreed Dean Pesnell, project scientist at NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory.
But, “as AR3738 moves out of view, the sun could set in its place for a couple of days or a week,” Pesnell told DailyMail.com in early July.
At the “solar minimum” of 2019, the number of sunspots visible on the Sun’s surface was virtually zero, but at the upcoming maximum in July 2025, the U.S. National Space Weather Prediction Center It has been estimated that there may be as many as 115 sunspots.
These magnetically dense areas of turbulence on the solar surface produce more powerful solar flares and plasma eruptions, called “coronal mass ejections” (CMEs).
While the 11-year solar cycle only increases total radiation leaving the Sun by a deceptively small 0.1 percent, that excess is highly concentrated in sunspot activity.
Last May, these increases to the 173,000 terawatts (trillion watts) of solar energy continuously reaching Earth disrupted farmers’ global positioning system (GPS) satellites and paralyzed planting equipment across the American Midwest.
“I’ve never faced anything like this,” Patrick O’Connor, who owns a farm about a 90-minute drive south of Minneapolis, told the New York Times.
Currently, the only predictive method space weather experts have for forecasting when a major solar storm is likely to occur is to track the path of sunspots.
“If you look at the sunspot orbiting the Sun, what we call an ‘active spot,'” McDowell said in May, “Oh, I’m looking at that sunspot, and it’s going to be facing Earth in two days. So if it burps, then we could be in trouble.”
“Therefore, it is possible to make a certain level of prediction,” he added. “We are working to improve it.”
WHAT IS THE SOLAR CYCLE?
The Sun is a huge ball of hot, electrically charged gas that moves, generating a powerful magnetic field.
This magnetic field goes through a cycle, called the solar cycle.
About every 11 years, the Sun’s magnetic field completely flips, meaning the Sun’s north and south poles swap places.
The solar cycle affects activity on the Sun’s surface, such as sunspots which are caused by the Sun’s magnetic fields.
Every 11 years, the Sun’s magnetic field changes position, meaning that the Sun’s north and south poles swap positions. The solar cycle affects activity on the Sun’s surface, with the number of sunspots increasing during the strongest phases (2001) than during the weaker ones (1996/2006).
One way to follow the solar cycle is by counting the number of sunspots.
The beginning of a solar cycle is a solar minimum, or when the Sun has the fewest sunspots. Over time, solar activity (and the number of sunspots) increases.
The middle of the solar cycle is solar maximum, or when the Sun has the most sunspots.
When the cycle ends, it fades to solar minimum and then a new cycle begins.
Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle.
These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space that can have effects on Earth.
For example, flares can cause lights in the sky, called auroras, or affect radio communications and power grids on Earth.
