MARK ALMOND: Not since 1914 has a political assassination been attempted at such a delicate time in Europe.

Slovakia may seem like a small and rather insignificant country, but it is located at the political crossroads of Europe, a place where ancient conflicts between East and West are laid bare.

So Wednesday’s shooting of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has inevitably sparked political upheaval far from his homeland.

Since 1914 and the execution of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, no assassination has been attempted at such a delicate moment in European politics.

That too had taken place in an apparent backwater, in that case, a dark corner of the Balkans.

But the resulting domino effect and the final horrors of the resulting Great War are easy to remember. Political violence can easily lead to destructive chaos.

Independent since 1993, Slovakia was short-lived and joined the European Union in 2004. But the confident expectation then that Europe would be a “continent of peace” now seems hollow, shattered by Russia’s bloody attack on its immediate neighbor. Slovakia, Ukraine.

It is Slovakia’s position as a frontline state – for both the European Union and NATO – that makes this small nation suddenly so important.

Western aid flowing through Slovakia has been vital to Ukraine’s defense against Putin’s aggression.

But weapons from Slovakia’s own arms industry have also been important, and here history plays an unexpected role.

Much of Slovakia’s arsenal dates back to Soviet-era designs, as does Ukraine’s. And that has meant that Slovak stocks of everything from tank bullets and ammunition to fighter jet spare parts fit neatly into what Ukrainians need.

Or I did until very recently. The return to power of Robert Fico as Slovak Prime Minister last October has changed things dramatically and damaged the unity of the EU and NATO in their support for Ukraine.

This is because, like his political ally Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, Robert Fico is an outspoken critic of Western support for kyiv. Fico ran a pro-Putin, anti-American and anti-EU campaign for his re-election.

And instead of sanctions, he calls on the West to start talks with President Putin to end the conflict.

Now Ukraine and its allies fear that Fico is hoping to corner Kiev, blocking EU aid and forcing Ukrainians to accept the Kremlin’s demands.

Why has Fico broken ranks with most EU and NATO states? Some people remember their youth in Czechoslovakia, the Soviet bloc state that once included Slovakia.

Fico joined the Communist Party at the age of 22 in 1986, just three years before the Soviet-backed regime collapsed.

But like many young and ambitious people 40 years ago, he quickly abandoned the party and embarked on his own post-communist odyssey, coming up with the idea of ​​a social democratic-style party called Smer – or “Leadership” – 25 years ago. However, popular opinion in Slovakia has been changing and Fico is a populist.

He has been sensitive to the fact that many of his fellow Slovaks fear the spread of war from Ukraine. They remember well the Prague Spring and the Russian invasion of 1968, but see appeasing Putin – not challenging him – as the way forward.

Fico’s combination of appropriating EU subsidies for Slovakia while opposing its plan to hand over migrants to countries like his own has also played well with voters.

Its popularity should not be underestimated.

Just in April, Fico’s pick for president, Peter Pellegrini, defeated the opposition candidate and will take office next month.

But it is Fico’s courtship of Putin and China that has worried the West most.

Slovakia is one of the smallest members of the EU. Generally in Brussels, the big boys – France and Germany – get their way.

But small states like Slovakia have a veto on foreign policy matters and, together with Viktor Orban in Hungary, Fico has formed an ‘Uncomfortable Squad’: skeptical of Ukraine, relatively friendly to Russia. Furthermore, fears are growing that Russia is trying to destabilize Western societies, as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned on Monday. Sabotage and murder on British soil cannot be ruled out.

The risk of more attacks after the Fico shooting is serious, all the more so today that Europe seems feverish, as it was in the first decades of the last century.

We are approaching election season across the continent, including elections for the European Parliament in the coming months.

Political leaders, from presidents to official politicians, will be out and about.

If for a long time there has been the risk of flying eggs or even the occasional punch, now the fear of knives and guns will haunt campaigning politicians everywhere.

Only a month passed after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914, before the universal horror at his assassination gave way, first to open international rivalry, and then, on July 28, to the catastrophe of the First World War. World War.

Whatever the motives of yesterday’s would-be assassin, the fact that a European head of government could be gunned down in this way has put all European nations – as well as the West’s great rivals, Russia and China – on edge. Red alert.

Just over a century away, the lessons of the Great War scream at us. The risk of broader contagion is very real.