Kamala Harris may become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win a surprise group of voters since Al Gore more than two decades ago.
A recent national poll released last week by CNN/SSRS found Harris leading the former president by 50 percent to 46 percent among seniors across the United States; the poll average ranked Harris three points ahead of Trump among respondents. old man.
These statistics represent a major breakthrough for Harris, who has been able to overtake Trump’s lead among older voters.
It shows a marked change from before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race in July and from final estimates in 2020, which showed Biden with 47 percent of the votes of people 65 and older, and Trump with more than half, with 52 percent.
But it’s no surprise that Harris is doing considerably better with older voters than previous Democrats, as Biden did better with older people in 2020 than Barack Obama did in 2012.
US Vice President Kamala Harris could be the first Democratic candidate to win over high-profile voters since Al Gore in 2000.
Final estimates in 2020 showed Biden with 47 percent of the votes of people 65 and older, and Trump with more than half at 52 percent.
Al Gore was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win over seniors more than two decades ago.
Although Harris appears to have won over the key group of older voters, she still appears to be struggling to win over younger voters, according to the poll data.
However, polls four years ago suggested that Biden was also doing better than the average Democrat among younger voters, a stark difference from what the data shows now.
However, the trade-off between younger voters and older voters may not be negative for the presidential candidate, since there are substantially more seniors in the United States than adults over 30 years of age.
According to recent data from a New York Times/Siena College poll last month, 67 percent of voters age 65 and older also said they were “almost certain” to vote.
The over-65 category includes baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, and the Silent Generation, anyone born between 1925 and 1945.
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 19 percentage points among the Silent Generation, but Trump won the same group by 16 percentage points over Biden in 2020.
It will be crucial to watch the senior voting bloc in key swing states, including Pennsylvania and Arizona, with 19 percent of Pennsylvania voters age 65 or older, and 18.5 percent of Arizona voters within that important electoral bloc.
However, pre-election polling data may not be completely accurate.
Four years ago, there were signs that older voters were shifting to become more Democratic, but Trump would eventually win them over.
Senior citizens are the primary beneficiaries of federal entitlements, including Social Security and Medicare, but Trump has recently proposed a tax cut to end all taxes on Social Security retirement income.
‘SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY SOCIAL SECURITY TAXES!’ Trump wrote July 31 in Truth Social, appealing to the tens of millions of people receiving monthly Social Security benefits ahead of the election.
But experts have criticized Trump’s plans from a political and cost perspective, warning that they could worsen the Social Security Administration’s funding crisis.
During an interview with CNN last week, Harris said she is “very proud” of the Biden Administration’s work to “cap the cost of insulin to $35 a month for seniors,” adding: “Donald Trump said that was going to do a number of things, including allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. It never happened.’
The NYT/Siena College survey also found that Harris and Trump are in a tight race in the key states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Polling data found that Harris received 48 percent support among likely voters in Michigan and Trump received 47 percent, while in Wisconsin Harris has 49 percent support to Trump’s 47 percent.
The margin of sampling error among likely voters is roughly plus or minus four percentage points in each poll.
Polls also found Harris had a nine-percentage-point lead over Trump in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College.
