Electric car sales will miss a key government target as demand slows

Sales of new electric cars will miss a key target this year.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) expects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 18.5 per cent of new registrations by the end of 2024, down from its previous estimate in April of 19.8 per cent.

More importantly, it is also below the previous Conservative government’s target of 22 per cent of vehicles producing zero emissions this year.

Carmakers who fail to comply with the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate face a fine of £15,000 per car, but are expected to escape punishment by promising to meet future targets between now and 2035, when a ban on petrol and diesel cars comes into effect.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “More and more people are buying and driving electric vehicles, but we still need the pace of change to accelerate otherwise the UK’s climate change ambitions are under threat and the ability of manufacturers to meet regulated EV targets is at risk.”

The SMMT expects 1,968,000 new cars to be registered in 2024, 3.4 percent more than in 2023, but less than the 1,984,000 forecast in April.

And while new vehicle registrations are expected to reach 2,029,000 by 2025, this figure will be slightly lower than the organisation’s previous estimates. Electric cars will account for 23.7% of the market next year, up from 25% previously.

That figure will also be below the ZEV mandate for 28 percent of new cars.

The figures suggest demand for electric vehicles is declining despite government efforts to encourage motorists to move away from petrol and diesel cars. In total, 147,517 new cars were sold in July, up 2.5 per cent on last year, according to SMMT figures.

That represented 24 consecutive months of year-over-year growth. It was also the best performance for July since the pandemic hit in 2020, as distributors returned to business after months of lockdown.

The month’s increase was driven by a 13 percent increase in orders from fleet customers.

This offset an 11.1 percent drop in sales between individuals. A total of 8,708 diesel vehicles and 76,879 gasoline vehicles were purchased in July, a drop of 21.9 percent and 5.9 percent respectively.

Sales of all-electric battery cars rose 18.8 percent to 27,335, while hybrid vehicles rose 31.4 percent to 21,446.

And in 2024, more than 1.15 million cars will have been registered, which is 5.5 percent more than in the same period last year, of which 37 percent correspond to private buyers and the rest to fleets and commercial customers.